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Uncertainty and Monetary Policy in Good and Bad Times : A Replication of the VAR Investigation by Bloom (2009)

Caggiano, Giovanni - 2020

an uncertainty shock. We find a significantly stronger response of real activity in recessions. Counterfactual …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012824829

Investment Under Rational Inattention : Evidence from US Sectoral Data

Zorn, Peter - 2020

Macroeconomic and sector-specific shocks exert differential effects on investment in disaggregate sectoral data. The response to macroeconomic shocks is hump-shaped, just as in aggregate data. The effects of sectoral innovations decrease monotonically. A calibrated model of investment with...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012827670

Asymmetries in Risk Premia, Macroeconomic Uncertainty and Business Cycles

Görtz, Christoph - 2019

A large literature suggests that the expected equity risk premium is countercyclical. Using a variety of different measures for this risk premium, we document that it also exhibits growth asymmetry, i.e. the risk premium rises sharply in recessions and declines much more gradually during the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012858207

Measuring Monetary Policy with Residual Sign Restrictions at Known Shock Dates

Badinger, Harald - 2020

residuals of the policy rule equation at these shock dates accordingly. In spite of its utmost agnostic nature, this approach …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012822501

The Econometrics of Oil Market VAR Models

Kilian, Lutz - 2020

Oil market VAR models have become the standard tool for understanding the evolution of the real price of oil and its impact in the macro economy. As this literature has expanded at a rapid pace, it has become increasingly difficult for mainstream economists to understand the differences between...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012839764

(Almost) Recursive Identification of Monetary Policy Shocks with Economic Parameter Restrictions

Burgard, Jan Pablo; Neuenkirch, Matthias; Umlandt, Dennis - 2023

output) shortly after a monetary policy shock. To overcome this problem, we propose to estimate the VAR parameters under the … restriction that economic theory is not violated, while the shocks are still recursively identified. We solve this optimization … “almost recursively identified approach with parameter restrictions” leads to a solution that avoids an estimation bias …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014262412

Shocks, Frictions, and Inequality in US Business Cycles

Bayer, Christian - 2020

How much does inequality matter for the business cycle and vice versa? Using a Bayesian likelihood approach, we estimate a heterogeneous-agent New-Keynesian (HANK) model with incomplete markets and portfolio choice between liquid and illiquid assets. The model enlarges the set of shocks and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012841741

The Effect of News Shocks and Monetary Policy

Görtz, Christoph - 2019

the pre-1980 period. Measuring expectations of future monetary policy rates conditional on a news shock suggests that the …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012889175

Macroeconomic Responses to Uncertainty Shocks : The Perils of Recursive Orderings

Kilian, Lutz; Plante, Michael; Richter, Alexander W. - 2022

A common practice in empirical macroeconomics is to examine alternative recursive orderings of the variables in structural vector autogressive (VAR) models. When the implied impulse responses look similar, the estimates are considered trustworthy. When they do not, the estimates are used to...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014240870

Drivers of Large Recessions and Monetary Policy Responses

Melina, Giovanni; Villa, Stefania - 2023

Shocks to capital utilization are introduced in a structural macroeconomic closed-economy model with financial frictions to capture disruptions on the ability of the capital stock to provide capital services used in production. Estimates for the Euro Area and the United States show that these...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014345602