an uncertainty shock. We find a significantly stronger response of real activity in recessions. Counterfactual …

residuals of the policy rule equation at these shock dates accordingly. In spite of its utmost agnostic nature, this approach …

-Bayesian techniques. The reduced-form analysis reveals substantial shifts in the variables’ long-run growth rates and shock volatilities … shocks and the shock propagation processes. Thus, I conclude that business cycle stabilization in Germany is driven by both …

output) shortly after a monetary policy shock. To overcome this problem, we propose to estimate the VAR parameters under the … restriction that economic theory is not violated, while the shocks are still recursively identified. We solve this optimization … “almost recursively identified approach with parameter restrictions” leads to a solution that avoids an estimation bias …