Showing 1 - 10 of 16
salient perturbations, we propose a strategic foundation of overconfidence. Since overconfident statements are used in …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010328716
We propose a model of instrumental belief choice under loss aversion. When new information arrives, an agent is prompted to abandon her prior. However, potential posteriors may induce her to take actions that generate a lower utility in some states than actions induced by her prior. These losses...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011584855
We study the inference and experimentation problem of an agent in a situation where the outcomes depend on the individual’s intrinsic ability and on an external variable. We analyze the mistakes made by decision-makers who hold inaccurate prior beliefs about their ability. Overconfident...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012018192
We study the pattern of correlations across a large number of behavioral regularities, with the goal of creating an empirical basis for more comprehensive theories of decision-making. We elicit 21 behaviors using an incentivized survey on a representative sample (n = 1;000) of the U.S....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011931952
We study the effects of overconfidence in a two-period investment-decision agency setting. Under common priors, agent … from first-period investment. This implies that agent overconfidence mitigates the agency problems arising from the agent …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010276369
are not. In this setting we show that overconfidence (i) unambiguously increases the bonus component in the managers … overconfidence can contribute to explaining both the increasing role of bonus contracts and the fall in marginal tax rates for high …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012314837
We analyze the effects of optimism and overconfidence when the manager's compensation package includes severance pay … negative effect on profit. Overconfidence, on the contrary, reduces incentive pay as shown by the previous literature, while … its effect on severance pay depends on the intensity of the bias. High values of overconfidence yield an inefficient level …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013353413
Gender differences in overconfidence have been extensively documented in the empirical literature, but the implications … for labor market outcomes are not well understood. In this paper, we analyze how men's relatively higher overconfidence …, they incur higher effort costs and discourage their peers, and we find that overconfidence can be either self-serving or …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014290249
overconfidence. We find experimental evidence that individuals update beliefs about their own investment ability based on realized … disposition effect leads to overconfidence and examine model implications for investors' trading behavior and expected profit. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014290267
We analyze a repeated principal-agent setting in which the principal cares about the agent's verifiable effort as well as an extra profit that can be generated only if the agent is talented. The agent is overconfident about his talent and updates beliefs using Bayes' rule. An exploitation...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014377455