Similar Search Results

Interest Rate Spillovers from the United States : Expectations, Term Premia and Macro-Financial Vulnerabilities

Mehrotra, Aaron N. - 2019

We analyse how movements in the components of sovereign bond yields in the United States affect long-term rates in 10 advanced and 21 emerging economies. The paper documents significant global spillovers from both the expectations and term premia components of long-term rates in the United...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012860570

Modelling Persistence and Non-Linearities in the US Treasury 10-Year Bond Yields

Caporale, Guglielmo Maria; Gil-Alaña, Luis A.; Yaya, … - 2022

This paper analyses persistence and non-linearities in quarterly and monthly US Treasury 10-year bond yields over the period 1962-2021 using two different fractional integration approaches including Chebyshev polynomials and Fourier functions respectively. The results for both quarterly and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013306037

Non-Linearities and Persistence in US Long-Run Interest Rates

Caporale, Guglielmo Maria; Gil-Alaña, Luis A.; … - 2021

-August 2020, the other from the ECB reporting average monthly values over the period January 1900-August 2020. The estimation …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013314848

Hartz IV and the Decline of German Unemployment : A Macroeconomic Evaluation

Hochmuth, Brigitte; Kohlbrecher, Britta; Merkl, Christian; … - 2021

generosity of long-term unemployment benefits. We propose a model with different unemployment durations, where the reform …’s steady state unemployment and that partial and equilibrium effect were nearly of equal importance. In addition, we provide …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013239563

Public Employment Agency Reform, Matching Efficiency, and German Unemployment

Merkl, Christian; Sauerbier, Timo - 2023

restructuring of the Federal Employment Agency in Germany (Hartz III labor market reform) for aggregate matching and unemployment … Employment Agency did not contribute to the decline in unemployment in Germany. By contrast, improved activation of unemployed …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014358809

Long-Term Effects of Hiring Subsidies for Unemployed Youths—Beware of Spillovers

Albanese, Andrea; Cockx, Bart; Dejemeppe, Muriel - 2022

increases job-finding in the private sector by 10 percentage points within one year of unemployment. Six years later, high …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014244086

Estimating Macroeconomic Uncertainty and Discord Using Info-Metrics

Lahiri, Kajal - 2019

We apply generalized beta and triangular distributions to histograms from the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) to estimate forecast uncertainty, shocks and discord using information framework, and compare these with moment-based estimates. We find these two approaches to produce...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012866372

Uncertainty and Monetary Policy in Good and Bad Times : A Replication of the VAR Investigation by Bloom (2009)

Caggiano, Giovanni - 2020

This paper revisits the well-known VAR evidence on the real effects of uncertainty shocks by Bloom (Econometrica 2009(3): 623-685. doi: 10.3982/ECTA6248). We replicate the results in a narrow sense using Eviews. In a wide sense, we extend his study by working with a smooth transition-VAR...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012824829

Climate Change and Economic Activity : Evidence from U.S. States

Mohaddes, Kamiar; C. Ng, Ryan N.; Pesaran, M. Hashem; … - 2022

We investigate the long-term macroeconomic effects of climate change across 48 U.S. states over the period 1963.2016 using a novel econometric strategy which links deviations of temperature and precipitation (weather) from their long-term moving-average historical norms (climate) to various...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013306954

The Real U.S. Unemployment Rate is Twice the Official Rate, and the Phillips Curve

Komlos, John - 2019

The official unemployment rate has become an inadequate measure of labor market conditions. This poses a major … unemployment rate by weighing part-time workers with 62.5%, the proportion of the time they work relative to full-time workers. We … provide new monthly estimates of the unemployment rate for the period 1994-2019 and find that their average during this 25 …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012861417