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What are the effects of beliefs, sentiment, and uncertainty, over the business cycle? To answer this question, we develop a behavioral New Keynesian macroeconomic model, in which we relax the assumption of rational expectations. Agents are, instead, boundedly rational: they have a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013315209
dynamics of oil price volatility by examining interactions between oil market and exchange rate in selected MENA countries …) to examine the presence of volatility spillover between oil prices and exchange rates return series. The econometric … rates, and ii) there is significant evidence of volatility spillovers from oil markets to exchange rate markets in the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012908723
activity to a financial uncertainty shock during the great recession. We replicate this evidence with an estimated DSGE … real activity of an uncertainty shock under different Taylor rules estimated with normal times vs. great recession data … (the latter associated with a stronger response to output). We find that the uncertainty shock-induced output loss …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012822498
an uncertainty shock. We find a significantly stronger response of real activity in recessions. Counterfactual …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012824829
We propose a new empirical framework that jointly decomposes the conditional variance of economic time series into a common and a sector-specific uncertainty component. We apply our framework to a large dataset of disaggregated industrial production series for the US economy. Our results...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014243086
Industrial activity periodically experiences breakthrough innovations in energy efficiency, but the estimated impacts of these innovations on aggregate energy use are highly varied. We develop a general equilibrium model to investigate whether this variation is determined by the structure of the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012844213
Oil market VAR models have become the standard tool for understanding the evolution of the real price of oil and its impact in the macro economy. As this literature has expanded at a rapid pace, it has become increasingly difficult for mainstream economists to understand the differences between...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012839764
How much does inequality matter for the business cycle and vice versa? Using a Bayesian likelihood approach, we estimate a heterogeneous-agent New-Keynesian (HANK) model with incomplete markets and portfolio choice between liquid and illiquid assets. The model enlarges the set of shocks and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012841741
We study the transmission of monetary policy shocks in a model in which realistic heterogeneity in price rigidity interacts with heterogeneity in sectoral size and input-output linkages, and derive conditions under which these heterogeneities generate large real effects. Empirically,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012892210
residuals of the policy rule equation at these shock dates accordingly. In spite of its utmost agnostic nature, this approach …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012822501