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Fitzgerald, Doireann - 2020

-entry dynamics of quantities, but no post-entry dynamics of markups. This suggests that shifts in demand play an important role in … successful entry, but that firms do not use dynamic manipulation of markups as an instrument to shift demand. We structurally … advertising to acquire new customers and thereby shift demand and increase sales. In the second, they use temporarily low markups …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012841929

Attention-Driven Demand for Bonus Contracts

Dertwinkel-Kalt, Markus - 2019

In many markets supply contracts include a series of small, regular payments made by consumers and a single, large bonus that consumers receive at some point during the contractual period. But, if for instance its production costs exceed its value to consumers, such a bonus creates...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012890631

The UK's Great Demand and Supply Recession

Jacob, Nicholas; Mion, Giordano - 2021

framework and firm-level prices and quantities data for detailed products allowing us to both measure demand, and its changes …. This in turn allows us to measure how changes in TFP-Q, demand and markups ultimately affected revenue TFP, as well as …-recession is due to both a weakening of demand and a decreasing TFP-Q pushing down sales, markups, revenue TFP and labour …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013314807

The Demand for Fact-Checking

Chopra, Felix; Haaland, Ingar; Roth, Christopher - 2021

Using a large-scale online experiment with more than 8,000 U.S. respondents, we examine how the demand for a politics … newsletter changes when the newsletter content is fact-checked. We first document an overall muted demand for fact-checking when …-checking reduces demand among respondents with strong ideological views and increases demand among ideologically moderate respondents …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013228860

Categorical Forecasts and Non-Categorical Loss Functions

Bürgi, Constantin - 2020

This paper introduces a new test of the predictive performance and market timing for categorical forecasts based on contingency tables when the user has non-categorical loss functions. For example, a user might be interested in the return of an underlying variable instead of just the direction....

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012834366

Quantifying Qualitative Survey Data : New Insights on the (Ir)Rationality of Firms' Forecasts

Botsis, Alexandros - 2020

Using a novel dataset that contains qualitative firm survey data on sales forecasts as well as balance-sheet data on realized sales, we document that only major forecast errors are predictable and display autocorrelation. This result is a particular violation of the Full Information Rational...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012839767

Real-Time Forecasting Using Mixed-Frequency Vars with Time-Varying Parameters

Heinrich, Markus - 2020

This paper provides a detailed assessment of the real-time forecast accuracy of a wide range of vector autoregressive models (VAR) that allow for both structural change and indicators sampled at different frequencies. We extend the literature by evaluating a mixed-frequency time-varying...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012842676

Should Faustmann Forecast Climate Change?

Gars, Johan - 2019

Climate change is predicted to substantially alter forest growth. Optimally, forest owners should take these future changes into account when making rotation decisions today. However, the fundamental uncertainty surrounding climate change makes predicting these shifts hard. Hence, this paper...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012866409

Rising to the Challenge : Bayesian Estimation and Forecasting Techniques for Macroeconomic Agent-Based Models

Delli Gatti, Domenico - 2019

We propose two novel methods to "bring ABMs to the data". First, we put forward a new Bayesian procedure to estimate the numerical values of ABM parameters that takes into account the time structure of simulated and observed time series. Second, we propose a method to forecast aggregate time...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012860573

Measuring Uncertainty of a Combined Forecast and Some Tests for Forecaster Heterogeneity

Lahiri, Kajal; Peng, Huaming; Sheng, Xuguang - 2021

We have argued that from the standpoint of a policy maker who has access to a number of expert forecasts, the uncertainty of a combined forecast should be interpreted as that of a typical forecaster randomly drawn from the pool. With a standard factor decomposition of a panel of forecasts, we...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013251262

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