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Economic Uncertainty and Fertility
Gozgor, Giray; Bilgin, Mehmet Huseyin; Rangazas, Peter - 2021
In this paper, we conduct an empirical study of how uncertainty alters fertility behavior. The precautionary motive for saving predicts that an increase in income uncertainty increases saving by reducing both consumption and fertility. We examine this prediction using a new measure of economic...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012582088
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Economic Uncertainty and Fertility
Gozgor, Giray; Bilgin, Mehmet; Rangazas, Peter C. - 2021
In this paper, we conduct an empirical study of how uncertainty alters fertility behavior. The precautionary motive for saving predicts that an increase in income uncertainty increases saving by reducing both consumption and fertility. We examine this prediction using a new measure of economic...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013231969
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Are We Fragmented Yet? Measuring Geopolitical Fragmentation and Its Causal Effects
Fernández-Villaverde, Jésus; Mineyama, Tomohide; … - 2024
After decades of rising global economic integration, the world economy is now fragmenting. To measure this phenomenon, we introduce an index of geopolitical fragmentation derived from various empirical indicators. This index is developed using a flexible dynamic factor model with time-varying...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015047292
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Optimal Price Targeting
Smith, Adam N.; Seiler, Stephan; Aggarwal, Ishant - 2021
We examine the profitability of personalized pricing policies that are derived using different specifications of demand in a typical retail setting with consumer-level panel data. We generate pricing policies from a variety of models, including Bayesian hierarchical choice models, regularized...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012799739
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Revisiting the Great Ratios Hypothesis
Chudik, Alexander; Pesaran, M. Hashem; Smith, Ron P. - 2022
The idea that certain economic variables are roughly constant in the long-run is an old one. Kaldor described them as stylized facts, whereas Klein and Kosobud labelled them great ratios. While such ratios are widely adopted in theoretical models in economics as conditions for balanced growth,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013177659
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Falling Behind: Has Rising Inequality Fueled the American Debt Boom?
Drechsel-Grau, Moritz; Greimel, Fabian - 2024
the household debt boom in the US between 1980 and 2007. We develop a tractable macroeconomic model with general social … comparisons in housing to show that changes in the distribution of income affect aggregate housing demand, aggregate debt and …-looking comparisons, rising inequality can rationalize a substantial share of the observed housing and debt boom. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015211305
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Inflation and Trading
Schnorpfeil, Philip; Weber, Michael; Hackethal, Andreas - 2024
We study how investors respond to inflation combining a customized survey experiment with trading data at a time of historically high inflation. Investors' beliefs about the stock return-inflation relation are very heterogeneous in the cross section and on average too optimistic. Moreover, many...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015211339
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The Distribution of Ambiguity Attitudes
von Gaudecker, Hans-Martin; Wogrolly, Axel; Zimpelmann, … - 2022
This paper analyzes the stability and distribution of ambiguity attitudes using a broad population sample. Using high-powered incentives, we collected six waves of data on ambiguity attitudes about financial markets – our main application – and climate change. Estimating a structural...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013470337
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The Effects of Monetary Policy: Theory with Measured Expectations
Roth, Christopher; Wiederholt, Mirko; Wohlfart, Johannes - 2023
We study the effects of monetary policy on aggregate consumption combining a heterogeneous agent model with measured expectations under different policy counterfactuals. We express the consumption of non-hand-to-mouth households as a function of expectations only and elicit all expectations...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014290126
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Can You Spot a Scam? Measuring and Improving Scam Identification Ability
Kubilay, Elif; Raiber, Eva; Spantig, Lisa; Cahlíková, Jana - 2023
The recent expansion of digital financial products leads to severe consumer protection issues such as fraud and scams. As these potentially decrease trust in digital services, especially in developing countries, avoiding victimization has become an important policy objective. In an online...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014290149