We have argued that from the standpoint of a policy maker, the uncertainty of using the average forecast is not the variance of the average, but rather the average of the variances of the individual forecasts that incorporate idiosyncratic risks. With a slight reformulation of the loss function...

Research has shown that birthweight has a lasting impact on later-life outcomes such as educational attainment and earnings. This paper examines the role of health at birth in determining academic achievement in childhood, which may provide the link between birthweight and adult outcomes. Using...

This paper investigates the asymptotic local power of the the averaged t-test of Im, Pesaran and Shin (2003, IPS hereafter) in the presence of both initial explosive conditions and incidental trends. By utilizing the least squares detrending methods, it is found that the initial condition plays...

We apply generalized beta and triangular distributions to histograms from the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) to estimate forecast uncertainty, shocks and discord using information framework, and compare these with moment-based estimates. We find these two approaches to produce...

This paper proposes a macro-prudential financial soundness analysis that can be used by most developing and transformation countries with or without crisis experience as well as by developed countries with limited data. The objective is to detect economic and financial sector vulnerability,...

Objectives: To estimate racial/ethnic and education-related disparities and examine trends in uncontrolled cardiovascular (CVD) risk factors among adults with diabetes. Methods: The analysis samples include adults aged 20 and over from NHANES III, 1988- 1994 and NHANES 1999-2008 who self-report...

With the increasing importance of the service-providing sectors, information from these sectors has become essential to the understanding of contemporary business cycles. This paper explores the usefulness of the transportation services output index (TSI) as an additional coincident indicator in...

We estimate and decompose family income-related inequality in child health in the US and analyze its dynamics using the income-related health mobility index recently introduced by Allanson et al., 2010. Data come from the 1997, 2002, and 2007 waves of the Child Development Supplement (CDS) of...

The objective of this paper is to estimate the effect of diabetes on labor market exit using longitudinal data from the 1992-2010 Health and Retirement Study (HRS). We estimate a discrete time hazard model to test whether diabetes affects the hazard of leaving employment among individuals who...

We reformulate the Nordhaus test as a friction model where the large number of zero revisions are treated as censored, i.e., unknown values inside a small region of “imperceptibility.” Using Blue Chip individual forecasts of U.S. real GDP growth, inflation, and unemployment over 1985-2020,...