-level forecasts or household expectations. As an application, we employ a panel of Greek manufacturing firms and quantify firms …

particular violation of the Full Information Rational Expectations hypothesis that requires explanation. In contrast, minor …

This paper proposes a new method of forecasting euro area quarterly real GDP that uses area-wide indicators, which are … information approach outperforms alternative forecasting methods in terms of forecast accuracy. …

paper considers ways of using high-dimensional data in forecasting. We consider selecting variables from a known active set …-dimensional setting with an application to forecasting UK inflation at different horizons over the period 2020q1-2023q1. This application …

-time out-of-sample forecasting comparison study with one of the most widely used data sets in the newer forecasting literature … for forecasting consumption developments. …

This paper derives new theoretical results for forecasting with Global VAR (GVAR) models. It is shown that the presence … Purchasing Managers Indices (PMIs) for forecasting global (48 countries) growth, and compare forecasts from AugGVAR models with a … number of data-rich forecasting methods, including Lasso, Ridge, partial least squares and factor-based methods. It is found …

the UK. Instead of imposing rational expectations and estimating the Phillips curve by the Generalized Method of Moments …, we follow Roberts (1997) and Adam and Padula (2003) and use direct measures of inflation expectations. The data source is …. Our main findings are as follows: (i) In comparison with the rational expectations approach, backward-looking behaviour …