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Uncertainty, Imperfect Information, and Expectation Formation Over the Firms's Life Cycle

Chen, Cheng - 2020

Using a long-panel dataset of Japanese firms that contains firm-level sales forecasts, we provide evidence on firm-level uncertainty and imperfect information over their life cycle. We find that firms make non-negligible and positively correlated forecast errors. However, they make more precise...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012826001

Revealed Preferences in a Sequential Prisoners' Dilemma: A Horse-Race Between Five Utility Functions

Miettinen, Topi; Kosfeld, Michael; Fehr, Ernst; … - 2017

We experimentally investigate behavior and beliefs in a sequential prisoner’s dilemma. Each subject had to choose an action as first-mover and a conditional action as second-mover. All subjects also had to state their beliefs about others’ second-mover choices. We find that subjects’...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011615913

Measuring strategic uncertainty in coordination games

Heinemann, Frank; Nagel, Rosemarie; Ockenfels, Peter - 2004

This paper explores three aspects of strategic uncertainty: its relation to risk, predictability of behavior and subjective beliefs of players. In a laboratory experiment we measure subjects? certainty equivalents for three coordination games and one lottery. Behavior in coordination games is...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010261109

Adoption and diffusion of health information technology: The case of primary care clinics

Callaway, Brant; Ghosal, Vivek - 2012

We empirically examine the determinants of adoption of information technology by primary healthcare clinics using a … large and complex market. Our study generates several interesting results related to the adoption and diffusion of Health … Information Technology (HIT), including: (1) the adoption probabilities vary considerably by the specific type of clinic; (2) in …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010288238

Measuring agents' reaction to private and public information in games with strategic complementarities

Cornand, Camille; Heinemann, Frank - 2010

In games with strategic complementarities, public information about the state of the world has a larger impact on equilibrium actions than private information of the same precision, because the former is more informative about the likely behavior of others. This may lead to welfare-reducing...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010266086

A large-market rational expectations equilibrium model

Vives, Xavier - 2011

This paper presents a market with asymmetric information where a privately revealing equilibrium obtains in a competitive framework and where incentives to acquire information are preserved. The equilibrium is efficient, and the paradoxes associated with fully revealing rational expectations...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010274759

Money Is the Root of Asset Bubbles

Awaya, Yu; Iwasaki, Kohei; Watanabe, Makoto - 2024

This paper examines how monetary expansion causes asset bubbles. When there is no monetary expansion, a bubbly asset is not created due to a hold-up problem. Monetary expansion increases buyers' money holdings, and then, dealers are willing to buy a worthless asset from sellers, in hopes of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014534470

A Signaling Model of University Selection

Anic, Ivan; Bozin, Vladimir; Uroševic, Branko - 2016

We propose a signaling model of student enrollment dynamics based on probabilities of completion of studies, under different rationality assumptions. There are two types of students and two schools. School of graduation serves as a signal of student productivity to prospective employers. The...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011431282

Excessive Herding in the Laboratory: The Role of Intuitive Judgments

March, Christoph; Ziegelmeyer, Anthony - 2018

We designed four observational learning experiments to identify the key channels that, along with Bayes-rational inferences, drive herd behavior. In Experiment 1, unobserved, whose actions remain private, learn from the public actions made in turn by subjects endowed with private signals of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011794194

Rotemberg and Imperfect Common Knowledge : A Solution Algorithm

Šauer, Radek - 2020

This paper develops an algorithm that enables to solve macroeconomic models with Rotemberg pricing and imperfect common knowledge. Under the concept of imperfect common knowledge, Rotemberg pricing requires the solution algorithm to take prices explicitly into account. The state space includes...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012841148

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