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Hindsight Bias and Trust in Government: Evidence from the United States

Herz, Holger; Kistler, Deborah; Zehnder, Christian; … - 2022

We empirically assess whether hindsight bias has consequences on how citizens evaluate their political actors. Using an incentivized elicitation technique, we demonstrate that people systematically misremember their past policy preferences regarding how to best fight the Covid-19 pandemic. At...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013353379

Evaluating Marginal Internalities: A New Approach

Kalamov, Zarko - 2021

This paper develops a new sufficient statistic approach for estimating the marginal internality from sin good consumption. It models a biased consumer who faces uncertain health harms and receives mandatory health insurance. I show that the marginal internality can be identified by observing how...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012799776

Biased Expectations and Labor Market Outcomes: Evidence from German Survey Data and Implications for the East-West Wage Gap

Balleer, Almut; Duernecker, Georg; Forstner, Susanne; … - 2023

We measure individual bias in labor market expectations in German survey data and find that workers on average significantly overestimate their individual probabilities to separate from their job when employed as well to find a job when unemployed. These biases vary significantly between...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014290246

Interest Rate Skewness and Biased Beliefs

Bauer, Michael D.; Chernov, Mikhail - 2021

Conditional yield skewness is an important summary statistic of the state of the economy. It exhibits pronounced variation over the business cycle and with the stance of monetary policy, and a tight relationship with the slope of the yield curve. Most importantly, variation in yield skewness has...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012599237

Do choices affect preferences? Some doubts and new evidence

Holden, Steinar - 2009

Recent research is exploring the case for choice-induced changes in preferences using the free-choice paradigm of Brehm (1956). Participants are faced with a choice between items that they have given the same rating of liking, two items at a time, and it is found that an item not chosen in one...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010265988

Still in Search of the Sunk Cost Bias

Negrini, Marcello; Riedl, Arno; Wibral, Matthias - 2020

Evidence from hypothetical scenarios strongly suggests the existence of a sunk cost bias, the tendency to 'throw good money after bad money.' However, the few studies using incentives are inconclusive. In addition, evidence on potential psychological channels underlying such a bias is scarce. We...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012314910

Evolution of Individual Preferences and Persistence of Family Rules

Cigno, Alessandro; Gioffré, Alessandro; Luporini, Annalisa - 2020

preference evolution? We show that it is in a couple's common interest to obey a rule requiring them to give speciﬁed amounts of …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012314863

Gravity at Sixty: The Workhorse Model of Trade

Yotov, Yoto V. - 2022

usefulness for counterfactual projections. The objective of this paper is to offer a historical overview of its evolution from an …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013177618

Norms and the Evolution of Leaders' Followership

Cabrales, Antonio; Hauk, Esther - 2022

leads to clustering, is crucial for the survival of the Pareto dominant actions. The evolution of leader and crowd …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013353457

Rules, Preferences and Evolution from the Family Angle

Cigno, Alessandro - 2021

This paper reviews the literature concerning the evolution of cultural traits in general and preferences in particular … effectively the clone of an existing one (either a parent or anyone else), there may be evolution only in the demographic sense … that the share of the population who hold a certain trait increases or decreases. Evolution in the strict sense of new …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012657932