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Uncertainty and Hyperinflation: European Inflation Dynamics after World War I

Lopez, Jose A.; Mitchener, Kris James - 2018

emerged in many European countries after World War I. We demonstrate that economic policy uncertainty was instrumental in … Hungary (GAPH) suffered from frequent uncertainty shocks – and correspondingly high levels of uncertainty – caused by …. In contrast, other European countries exhibited lower levels of measured uncertainty between 1919 and 1925, allowing them …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011872123

International Inflation Spillovers Through Input Linkages

Auer, Raphael A.; Levchenko, Andrei A.; Sauré, Philip - 2017

We document that observed international input-output linkages contribute substantially to synchronizing producer price inflation (PPI) across countries. Using a multi-country, industry-level dataset that combines information on PPI and exchange rates with international and domestic input-output...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011657116

Causal Effects of Countercyclical Interest Rates : Evidence from the Classical Gold Standard

Mitchener, Kris James; Pina, Gonçalo - 2022

We estimate the causal impact of countercyclical interest rates on macroeconomic outcomes in open economies. To identify countercyclical interest rates, we construct a new database of short-term interest rates, principal exports, and international commodity prices for 40 economies from 1870 to...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013291318

Pegxit Pressure: Evidence from the Classical Gold Standard

Mitchener, Kris James; Pina, Gonçalo - 2016

We develop a simple model that highlights the costs and benefits of fixed exchange rates as they relate to trade, and show that negative export-price shocks reduce fiscal revenue and increase the likelihood of an expected currency devaluation. Using a new high-frequency data set on...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011584911

The Greek debt crisis: Likely causes, mechanics and outcomes

Arghyrou, Michael G.; Tsoukalas, John D. - 2010

We use insights from the literature on currency crises to offer an analytical treatment of the crisis in the market for Greek government bonds. We argue that the crisis itself and its escalating nature are very likely to be the result of: (a) steady deterioration of Greek macroeconomic...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010274777

Causal Effects of Countercyclical Interest Rates: Evidence from the Classical Gold Standard

Mitchener, Kris James; Pina, Gonçalo - 2022

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013266681

International Credit Flows and Pecuniary Externalities

Brunnermeier, Markus; Sannikov, Yuliy - 2015

This paper develops a dynamic two-country neoclassical stochastic growth model with incomplete markets. Short-term credit flows can be excessive and reverse suddenly. The equilibrium outcome is constrained inefficient due to pecuniary externalities. First, an undercapitalized country borrows too...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010480876

A risk allocation approach to optimal exchange rate policy

Mundaca, B. Gabriela; Strand, Jon - 2004

We derive the optimal exchange rate policy for a small open economy subject to terms-oftrade shocks. Firm owners and workers are risk averse but workers more so. Wages are given or partially indexed in the short run, and capital markets are imperfect. The government sets the exchange rate to...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010261106

An output perspective on a northeast Asia currency union

Cheung, Yin-Wong; Yuen, Jude - 2004

The prospect of creating a currency union consisting of China, Japan, and Korea is evaluated using output data. After a brief discussion on the interactions between the three countries, the study investigates whether these three countries have common synchronous business cycles, which are...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010261238

Real and nominal wage adjustment in open economies

Forslund, Anders; Gottfries, Nils; Westermark, Andreas - 2006

How are wages set in an open economy? What role is played by demand pressure, international competition, and structural factors in the labour market? How important is nominal wage rigidity and exchange rate policy for the evolution of real wages and competitiveness? To answer these questions, we...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010261405

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