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This paper focuses on the debt recovery channel linking the dynamics of public debt to partial sovereign defaults. We … build a simple model which incorporates sovereign default and a debt recovery rule. It depends on a parameter that allows … for partial debt recovery. We show that the maximum debt-to-GDP ratio that a country can sustain without defaulting is …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013292498
Sovereign governments owe debt to many foreign creditors and can choose which creditors to favor when making payments …. This paper documents the de facto seniority structure of sovereign debt using new data on defaults (missed payments or … arrears) and creditor losses in debt restructuring (haircuts). We overturn conventional wisdom by showing that official …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012870639
, current account balance and public debt, as a percentage of GDP, and the temporal period (before and after 2010) also …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013306033
revenues, which also improves fiscal sustainability. Specifically, rationalising public expenditures without jeopardising the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013289691
I analyze how lack of commitment affects the maturity structure of sovereign debt. Governments balance benefits of …-term debt affects default and rollover decisions by subsequent policy makers. The equilibrium maturity structure is shaped by … revenue losses on inframarginal units of debt that reflect the price impact of these decisions. The model predicts an interior …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010264518
We offer a new methodology for the assessment of public debt sustainability in a stochastic economy when sovereign … default taken into account. The default threshold differs from the no-Ponzi condition and depends on the post-default debt … sequence of shocks. We highlight the role of the debt recovery ratio on the whole dynamics of public debt. When a sovereign …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011698721
Do the U.S. have a current account surplus or a deficit with the EU? Since 2009, official sources disagree: The U.S. Department of Commerce claims a consistent U.S. surplus while Eurostat reports the opposite. International transactions are notoriously difficult to measure accurately, but the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012861474
We apply a "new" conventional (CAPB-based) measure of fiscal policy, which is less prone to endogeneity issues, and find that a 1-percent of GDP fiscal consolidation leads to the improvement of the current account-to-GDP ratio by approximately 0.8 percent of GDP, while previous research based on...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012841935
We estimate a three-region (DE-REA-RoW) structural macroeconomic model, and we provide a counterfactual on how nominal exchange rate flexibility would have affected the German trade balance (TB) by simulating the shocks of the estimated model under a counterfactual flexible exchange rate regime....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012890627
The paper examines episodes of current account adjustment in individual economies. A central finding is that these episodes are very divergent and can be usefully classified, on the basis of cluster analysis, in three groups. A majority of cases is characterised by internal adjustment,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013317000