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Signaling and Employer Learning with Instruments

Aryal, Gaurab; Bhuller, Manudeep; Lange, Fabian - 2020

The social and the private returns to education differ when education can increase productivity, and also be used to signal productivity. We show how instrumental variables can be used to separately identify and estimate the social and private returns to education within the employer learning...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012179891

The Econometrics of Oil Market VAR Models

Kilian, Lutz; Zhou, Xiaoqing - 2020

supply shocks that have been used as external or internal instruments for VAR models. …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012207918

Are Fiscal Multipliers Estimated with Proxy-SVARs Robust?

Angelini, Giovanni; Caggiano, Giovanni; Castelnuovo, Efrem - 2020

shocks larger than that of the available instruments. Our two main findings are the following. First, the estimate of the tax … multiplier to be robustly larger than one across different models that feature different sets of instruments. Our results are … robust to the joint employment of different fiscal and non-fiscal instruments. …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012269508

Interpreting OLS Estimands When Treatment Effects Are Heterogeneous: Smaller Groups Get Larger Weights

Sloczynski, Tymon - 2020

Applied work often studies the effect of a binary variable (“treatment”) using linear models with additive effects. I study the interpretation of the OLS estimands in such models when treatment effects are heterogeneous. I show that the treatment coefficient is a convex combination of two...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012227671

Targeted Bidders in Government Tenders

Cappelletti, Matilde; Giuffrida, Leonardo M. - 2024

A set-aside promotes a more equitable procurement process by restricting participation in government tenders to small or disadvantaged businesses. Yet its micro-effects on tender outcomes (competition and contract efficiency) and targeted firm performance entail trade-offs, which we evaluate...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015047266

High-Dimensional Forecasting with Known Knowns and Known Unknowns

Pesaran, M. Hashem; Smith, Ron P. - 2024

, known knowns, using Lasso and OCMT, and approximating unobserved latent factors, known unknowns, by various means. This …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014534378

Regional Heterogeneity and U.S. Presidential Elections

Ahmed, Rashad; Pesaran, M. Hashem - 2020

This paper develops a recursive model of voter turnout and voting outcomes at U.S. county level to investigate the socioeconomic determinants of recent U.S. presidential elections. It is shown that the relationship between many socioeconomic variables and voting outcomes is not uniform across...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012314902