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Uncertainty and Monetary Policy in Good and Bad Times : A Replication of the VAR Investigation by Bloom (2009)
Caggiano, Giovanni - 2020
an uncertainty shock. We find a significantly stronger response of real activity in recessions. Counterfactual …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012824829
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The Econometrics of Oil Market VAR Models
Kilian, Lutz - 2020
Oil market VAR models have become the standard tool for understanding the evolution of the real price of oil and its impact in the macro economy. As this literature has expanded at a rapid pace, it has become increasingly difficult for mainstream economists to understand the differences between...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012839764
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Measuring Monetary Policy with Residual Sign Restrictions at Known Shock Dates
Badinger, Harald - 2020
residuals of the policy rule equation at these shock dates accordingly. In spite of its utmost agnostic nature, this approach …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012822501
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(Almost) Recursive Identification of Monetary Policy Shocks with Economic Parameter Restrictions
Burgard, Jan Pablo; Neuenkirch, Matthias; Umlandt, Dennis - 2023
output) shortly after a monetary policy shock. To overcome this problem, we propose to estimate the VAR parameters under the … restriction that economic theory is not violated, while the shocks are still recursively identified. We solve this optimization …, generates theory-consistent impulse responses, and is as close as possible to the recursive scheme …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014262412
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Shocks, Frictions, and Inequality in US Business Cycles
Bayer, Christian - 2020
How much does inequality matter for the business cycle and vice versa? Using a Bayesian likelihood approach, we estimate a heterogeneous-agent New-Keynesian (HANK) model with incomplete markets and portfolio choice between liquid and illiquid assets. The model enlarges the set of shocks and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012841741
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Financial Frictions and the Wealth Distribution
Fernández-Villaverde, Jesús - 2020
We postulate a nonlinear DSGE model with a financial sector and heterogeneous households. In our model, the interaction between the supply of bonds by the financial sector and the precautionary demand for bonds by households produces significant endogenous aggregate risk. This risk induces an...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012825400
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The UK's Great Demand and Supply Recession
Jacob, Nicholas; Mion, Giordano - 2021
We revisit UK’s poor productivity performance since the Great Recession by means of both a suitable theoretical framework and firm-level prices and quantities data for detailed products allowing us to both measure demand, and its changes over time, and distinguish between quantity total factor...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013314807
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News Shocks Under Financial Frictions
Görtz, Christoph; Tsoukalas, John D.; Zanetti, Francesco - 2021
. We document two new facts using VAR methods. First, a (positive) shock to future TFP generates a significant decline in …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013314862
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Macroeconomic Responses to Uncertainty Shocks : The Perils of Recursive Orderings
Kilian, Lutz; Plante, Michael; Richter, Alexander W. - 2022
A common practice in empirical macroeconomics is to examine alternative recursive orderings of the variables in structural vector autogressive (VAR) models. When the implied impulse responses look similar, the estimates are considered trustworthy. When they do not, the estimates are used to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014240870
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Productivity Shocks and Aggregate Fluctuations in an Estimated Endogenous Growth Model with Human Capital
Malley, Jim - 2011
Employing an endogenous growth model with human capital, this paper explores how productivity shocks in the goods and human capital producing sectors contribute to explaining aggregate fluctuations in output, consumption, investment and hours. Given the importance of accounting for both the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013120659