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-driven theory of dynamic pricing in which the Phillips curve slope is endogenous to systematic aspects of monetary policy. In our …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013250042
an expert forecast about the likelihood of a recession. Our findings are consistent with the basic premise of theories of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012314921
We leverage the small open economy Switzerland as a testing ground for basic premises of macroeconomic models of endogenous information acquisition, using tailored surveys of firms and households. First, we show that firms perceive a greater exposure to exchange rate movements than households,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012799762
forecast errors. However, they make more precise forecasts and less correlated forecast errors when they become more …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012826001
implement – but their forecasting performance is not as inadequate as assumed in the characterization above. In this paper we … forecasting error is frequently close to zero, hence (belief amended) adaptive expectations are close to unbiasedness …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013217385
Using a novel decomposition, I show that systematic relationships between information and subjective models across agents distort the aggregate transmission of shocks in a general class of macroeconomic models. I document evidence of such a systematic correlation between household information...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013289696
an expert forecast about the likelihood of a recession. Our findings are consistent with the basic premise of theories of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013315172
We study the effects of monetary policy on aggregate consumption combining a heterogeneous agent model with measured expectations under different policy counterfactuals. We express the consumption of non-hand-to-mouth households as a function of expectations only and elicit all expectations...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014262696
Bayesian updating is the dominant theory of learning. However, the theory is silent about how individuals react to …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013227484
We derive the optimal monetary policy in a sticky price model when private agents follow adaptive learning. We show that this slight departure from rationality has important implications for policy design. The central bank faces a new intertemporal trade-off, not present under rational...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010271452