methods provide better overall forecasting performance and offer more attractive risk profiles compared to individual, pooled …We develop novel forecasting methods for panel data with heterogeneous parameters and examine them together with … forecasting methods can perform better than forecasts based on individual estimates and demonstrate how gains in predictive …

bias in corporate taxation. It is well known that this reform reduces bank leverage. This paper analyzes a novel …, complementary channel: risk taking. We model banks’ portfolio choice under moral hazard and emphasize the ‘incentive function’ of … equity. We find that (i) an allowance for corporate equity (ACE) and a lower tax rate discourage risk taking and offer …

as predictors. Third, we pool the forecasts in clusters to hedge against model risk and to evaluate the usefulness of …, and reducing tail risk. Using the same approach for return forecasts, however, does not lead to a consistent …