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In statistics, samples are drawn from a population in a data-generating process (DGP). Standard errors measure the uncertainty in sample estimates of population parameters. In science, evidence is generated to test hypotheses in an evidence-generating process (EGP). We claim that EGP variation...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013312068
This paper examines how skill-biased growth can generate economic fragmentation (income dis-parities) that give rise to social fragmentation (the adoption of increasingly incompatible social identities and values), which generate political fragmentation (the adoption of increasingly incompatible...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012859600
We examine partisan bias in inflation expectations. Our dataset includes inflation expectations of the New York Fed … based on how partisans respond to changes in the White House's occupant (partisan bias). The results also corroborate the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012860297
Conditional yield skewness is an important summary statistic of the state of the economy. It exhibits pronounced variation over the business cycle and with the stance of monetary policy, and a tight relationship with the slope of the yield curve. Most importantly, variation in yield skewness has...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013222193
Evidence from hypothetical scenarios strongly suggests the existence of a sunk cost bias, the tendency to ‘throw good … psychological channels underlying such a bias is scarce. We present a laboratory experiment designed to investigate the sunk cost … bias and to test some prominent psychological mechanisms. Inspired by the hypothetical scenarios, we use a two …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013315181
European countries for more than a decade, we estimate time-varying individual level bias in ‘survival expectations' (BSE) at …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013311581
News reports and communication are inherently constrained by space, time, and attention. As a result, news sources often condition the decision of whether to share a piece of information on the similarity between the signal and the prior belief of the audience, which generates a sample selection...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012840217
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012866400
asymptotic linear expansions with nearly optimal rates. Second, we study the higher-order bias of exact quantile estimators up to … O (1/n). Using a novel non-smooth calculus technique, we uncover previously unknown non-negligible bias components that … “symmetric” bias correction, which admits a feasible implementation. Our simulations confirm the empirical importance of bias …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013229701
"Big G" typically refers to aggregate government spending on a homogeneous good. In this paper, we open up this construct by analyzing the entire universe of procurement contracts of the US government and establish five facts. First, government spending is granular, that is, it is concentrated...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012836206