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A Probabilistic Solution to High-Dimensional Continuous-Time Macro and Finance Models
Huang, Ji - 2023
This paper introduces the probabilistic formulation of continuous-time economic models: forward stochastic differential equations (SDE) govern the dynamics of backward-looking variables, and backward SDEs capture that of forward-looking variables. Deep learning streamlines the search for the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014345557
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To React or Not? Fiscal Policy, Volatility and Welfare in the EU-3
Malley, Jim - 2008
policy is purely to stabilize output or debt volatility, then our results suggest substantial reductions can be obtained …, especially with respect to output. In stark contrast, however, a formal general equilibrium welfare assessment of the volatility …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012773638
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Bitcoin Fluctuations and the Frequency of Price Overreactions
Caporale, Guglielmo Maria - 2019
This paper investigates the role of the frequency of price overreactions in the cryptocurrency market in the case of BitCoin over the period 2013-2018. Specifically, it uses a static approach to detect overreactions and then carries out hypothesis testing by means of a variety of statistical...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012892294
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Debt Shifting and Transfer Pricing in a Volatile World
Comincioli, Nicola; Panteghini, Paolo; Vergalli, Sergio - 2021
In this article we introduce a stochastic model with a multinational company (MNC) that exploits tax avoidance practices. We focus on both transfer pricing (TP) and debt shifting (DS) activities and show how their optimal level is chosen by the shareholders. In addition, we perform an extensive...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013251265
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Modelling volatilities and conditional correlations in futures markets with a multivariate t distribution
Pesaran, Bahram; Pesaran, Mohammad Hashem - 2007
than by GARCH type volatility estimates. The t-DCC estimation procedure is applied to a portfolio of daily returns on … suggest a general trend towards a lower level of return volatility, accompanied by a rising trend in conditional cross …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010276212
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Differential Games of Public Investment : Markovian Best Responses in the General Case
Jaakkola, Niko; Wagener, Florian - 2023
sufficient condition for constructing the best response. Our methods do not require specific functional forms. Our theory has …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014345885
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Liquidity risk, credit risk and the overnight interest rate spread: A stochastic volatility modelling approach
Beirne, John; Caporale, Guglielmo Maria; Spagnolo, Nicola - 2010
In this paper we model the volatility of the spread between the overnight interest rate and the central bank policy … 2007. During the crisis, the policy spread exhibited signs of volatility, owing to the breakdown in interbank market … activity. The determinants of this volatility are assessed using Stochastic Volatility models to gauge the role played by …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010270543
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Stochastic Contracts and Subjective Evaluations
Lang, Matthias - 2021
Subjective evaluations are widely used, but call for different contracts from traditional moral-hazard settings. Previous literature shows that contracts require payments to third parties, which real-world contracts rarely use. I show that the implicit assumption of deterministic contracts makes...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013311715
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A multivariate long-memory model with structural breaks
Caporale, Guglielmo Maria; Gil-Alana, Luis A. - 2007
This paper introduces a multivariate long-memory model with structural breaks. In the proposed framework, time series exhibit possibly fractional orders of integration which are allowed to be different in each subsample. The break date is endogenously determined using a procedure which minimises...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010264093
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Variable selection and inference for multi-period forecasting problems
Pesaran, Mohammad Hashem; Pick, Andreas; Timmermann, Allan - 2009
This paper conducts a broad-based comparison of iterated and direct multi-step forecasting approaches applied to both univariate and multivariate models. Theoretical results and Monte Carlo simulations suggest that iterated forecasts dominate direct forecasts when estimation error is a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010276226