We estimate a three-variate VAR using proxies of global financial uncertainty, the global financial cycle, and world … industrial production to simulate the effects of the jump in financial uncertainty observed in correspondence of the Covid-19 … outbreak. We predict the cumulative loss in world output one year after the uncertainty shock due to Covid-19 to be about 14% …

and uncertainty? We build a model where countries disagree on policy targets and how policies affect the economies, and … show that uncertainty not only determines the type of cooperative policy but also whether countries want to cooperate at … all. Countries facing larger model disagreement also need to face larger uncertainty with respect to policy spillovers to …