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Business Cycle Narratives
Larsen, Vegard - 2019
Research about narratives’ role in economics is scarce, while real word experience and research in other sciences suggest they matter a lot. This article proposes a view and methodology for quantifying the epidemiology of media narratives relevant to business cycles in the US, Japan, and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012892114
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Heterogeneous Expectations, Indeterminacy, and Postwar US Business Cycles
Ilabaca, Francisco - 2020
This paper estimates a New Keynesian model extended to include heterogeneous expectations, to revisit the evidence that postwar US macroeconomic data can be explained as the outcome of passive monetary policy, indeterminacy, and sunspot-driven fluctuations in the pre-1979 sample, with a switch...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012836715
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Lending Cycles and Real Outcomes : Costs of Political Misalignment
Bircan, Cagatay; Saka, Orkun - 2021
suffer the greatest constraints, reducing aggregate productivity …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013246909
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Sectoral Okun's Law and Cross-Country Cyclical Differences
Goto, Eiji - 2020
We estimate Okun's law, the negative relationship between output and the unemployment rate, at the sector level for the US, the UK, Japan, and Switzerland to test several hypotheses that may explain why the aggregate Okun's coeffcients are different across countries. Specifically, we show that...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012841145
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Quarterly GDP Estimates for the German States : New Data for Business Cycle Analyses and Long-Run Dynamics
Lehmann, Robert; Wikman, Ida - 2023
To date, only annual information on economic activity is published for the 16 German states. In this paper, we calculate quarterly regional GDP estimates for the period between 1995 to 2021, thereby improving the regional database for Germany. The new data set will regularly be updated when...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014260700
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The Devil is in the Shadow : Do Institutions Affect Income and Productivity or Only Official Income and Official Productivity?
Dreher, Axel; Meon, Pierre-Guillaume; Schneider, Friedrich - 2021
This paper assesses the relationship between institutions, output, and productivity, when official output is corrected … output and total factor productivity, and its negative impact on the size of the underground economy. However, once output is … total ("corrected") factor productivity even becomes insignificant. Differences in corrected output must then be attributed …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013316690
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Trade Liberalization, Input Intermediaries and Firm Productivity : Evidence from China
Defever, Fabrice - 2019
We investigate theoretically and empirically the role of wholesalers in mediating the productivity effects of trade … liberalization. Intermediaries provide indirect access to foreign produced inputs. The productivity effects of input tariff cuts on … firms experience productivity gains from reducing input tariffs if trade intermediation of foreign inputs within their …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012857766
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Bargaining Shocks and Aggregate Fluctuations
Drautzburg, Thorsten; Fernández-Villaverde, Jesús; … - 2021
We argue that social and political risk causes significant aggregate fluctuations by changing workers’ bargaining power. Using a Bayesian proxy-VAR estimated with U.S. data, we show how distribution shocks trigger output and unemployment movements. To quantify the aggregate importance of these...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013235101
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Productivity Shocks and Aggregate Fluctuations in an Estimated Endogenous Growth Model with Human Capital
Malley, Jim - 2011
Employing an endogenous growth model with human capital, this paper explores how productivity shocks in the goods and … of innovations to productivity on macroeconomic activity …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013120659
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Endogenous Repo Cycles
Arbuzov, Vyacheslav - 2019
This paper presents a simple and tractable equilibrium model of repos, where collateralized credit emerges under limited commitment. We show that even if there is no time variation in fundamentals, repo markets can fluctuate endogenously over time. In our theory, repo market fragilities are...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012892066