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Volatility Forecasts for the RTS Stock Index : Option-Implied Volatility Versus Alternative Methods
Caporale, Guglielmo Maria - 2019
alternative models, specifically option-implied volatility forecasts based on the Black-Scholes model, ARCH/GARCH-type model …This paper compares volatility forecasts for the RTS Index (the main index for the Russian stock market) generated by … information content). Various forecasting performance tests are carried out which suggest that both implied volatility and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012871648
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Asymmetry in volatility: A comparison of developed and transition stock markets
Wdowiński, Piotr; Malecka, Marta - 2010
ARCH modelling framework of Engle (1982) and its GARCH generalization of Bollerslev (1986) gave a huge impetus to … describe the most typical features of capital markets like volatility clustering, excess kurtosis and fat tails. As empirical … evidence shows asymmetry is also a prominent feature of stock market returns volatility. The reaction of risk if stock returns …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010270556
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Predictability of Bull and Bear Markets : A New Look at Forecasting Stock Market Regimes (and Returns) in the Us
Haase, Felix; Neuenkirch, Matthias - 2021
The empirical literature of stock market predictability mainly suffers from model uncertainty and parameter instability. To meet this challenge, we propose a novel approach that combines the documented merits of diffusion indices, regime-switching models, and forecast combination to predict the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013250734
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Liberalization and Stock Market Co-Movement between Emerging Economies
Beine, Michel A. R.; Candelon, Bertrand - 2021
reforms which aim at opening these countries to trade and financial channels to the rest of the world. The estimation of time …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013316796
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Aggregate Insider Trading and Stock Market Volatility in the UK
Caporale, Guglielmo Maria; Kyriacou, Kyriacos; … - 2023
This paper examines the relationship between aggregate insider trading (AIT) and stock market volatility using monthly …-run increase in stock market volatility; this can be attributed to a combination of insiders manipulating the timing and content of …-regulated market, it is plausible that the main driver of the increase in stock market volatility should be the information effect …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014347820
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Persistence in High Frequency Financial Data
Caporale, Guglielmo Maria; Plastun, Alex - 2022
This paper investigates persistence in high-frequency, intraday data (and also daily and monthly ones) in the case of the EuroStoxx 50 futures over the period from 2002 to 2018 (720 million trade records) using R/S analysis and the Hurst exponent as a measure of persistence. The results indicate...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014242794
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Stock Market Linkages between the ASEAN Countries, China and the Us : A Fractional Cointegration Approach
Caporale, Guglielmo Maria - 2019
This paper examines stock market integration between the ASEAN five and the US and China, respectively, over the period from November 2002 to March 2018. The linkages between both aggregate and financial sector stock indices (both weekly and monthly) are analysed using fractional integration and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012891049
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High and Low Prices and the Range in the European Stock Markets : A Long-Memory Approach
Caporale, Guglielmo Maria - 2019
This paper uses fractional integration techniques to examine the stochastic behaviour of high and low stock prices in Europe and then to test for the possible existence of long-run linkages between them by looking at the range, i.e., the difference between the two logged series. Specifically,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012866394
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Cycles and Long-Range Behaviour in the European Stock Market
Caporale, Guglielmo Maria - 2019
This paper uses a modelling framework which includes two singularities (or poles) in the spectral density function, one corresponding to the long-run (zero) frequency and the other to the cyclical (non-zero) frequency. The adopted specification is very general, since it allows for fractional...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012859046
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The Effects of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Stock Markets, CDS and Economic Activity : Time-Varying Evidence from the US and Europe
Caporale, Guglielmo Maria; Catik, Abdurrahman Nazif; … - 2021
benchmark linear VAR models and then, given the evidence of parameter instability, TVP-VAR models with stochastic volatility …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013211119