of the disruption in production that started in China and then quickly spread across the world. We find that the COVID-19 … shock has a considerable impact on most economies in the world, especially when a share of the labor force is quarantined … networks. In this paper we incorporate production barriers induced by COVID-19 shock into a Ricardian model with sectoral …

an uncertainty shock. We find a significantly stronger response of real activity in recessions. Counterfactual …

due to a fiscal policy shock, as compared to when the rise in output is due to a positive technology shock. The cross ….75 when the rise in output follows from a favorable output shock …

outbreak. We predict the cumulative loss in world output one year after the uncertainty shock due to Covid-19 to be about 14% …We estimate a three-variate VAR using proxies of global financial uncertainty, the global financial cycle, and world …

with input-output linkages to gauge the effects of this adverse supply shock in China on the global economy through … (in contrast to final goods trade) in transmitting the shock. In a hypothetical world without GVCs, the welfare loss due … to the Covid-19 shock in China is reduced by 40% in the median country. In several other countries, the effects are …

. The MP links significantly amplified the impact of these shocks on the rest of the world, which had a much greater impact …

We investigate the sources of the great changes in GDP volatility observed from 1966 to 2000. We develop a general …-sectoral linkages and households' behavior to aggregate volatility. Our results show that changes in sectoral volatility played an … important role in shaping volatility at the aggregate level. Moreover, asymmetries in the economic structure sometimes had an …