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Forecasting GDP All Over the World Using Leading Indicators Based on Comprehensive Survey Data
Garnitz, Johanna - 2019
, we use a free and instantaneous available source of leading indicators, the ifo World Economic Survey (WES), to forecast … major WES indicators produces on average lower forecast errors compared to a benchmark model. Second, the most important WES …, adding the WES indicators of the main trading partners leads to a further increase of forecast accuracy in more than 50% of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012867868
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Globalization in the Time of COVID-19
Sforza, Alessandro - 2020
of the disruption in production that started in China and then quickly spread across the world. We find that the COVID-19 … shock has a considerable impact on most economies in the world, especially when a share of the labor force is quarantined …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012837986
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The Falling Elasticity of Global Trade to Economic Activity : Testing the Demand Channel
Auboin, Marc - 2018
Since the recovery from the great financial crisis in 2010, global real trade flows grew much slower than pre-crisis, in both absolute terms (growth rates) and relative terms (relative to GDP, from 2:1 in the great 1990’s to 1:1 since 2012) A debate has arisen as to whether this global trade...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012908674
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Arming in the Global Economy : The Importance of Trade with Enemies and Friends
Garfinkel, Michelle R. - 2019
We analyze how trade openness matters for interstate conflict over productive resources. Our analysis features a terms-of-trade channel that makes security policies trade-regime dependent. Specifically, trade between two adversaries reduces each one’s incentive to arm given the opponent’s...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012892081
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The Trade Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic
Liu, Xuepeng; Ornelas, Emanuel; Shi, Huimin - 2021
Using a gravity-like approach, we study how Covid-19 deaths and lockdown policies affected countries’ imports from China during 2020. We find that a country’s own Covid-19 deaths and lockdowns significantly reduced its imports from China, suggesting that the negative demand effects prevailed...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013224091
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Mis-Allocation within Firms : Internal Finance and International Trade
Doerr, Sebastian; Marin, Dalia; Suverato, Davide; … - 2021
This paper develops a novel theory of capital mis-allocation within firms that stems from managers’ empire building and informational frictions within the organization. Introducing an internal capital market into a two-factor model of multi-segment firms, we show that international competition...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013312862
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The Direct and Indirect Effects of Financial Development on International Trade : Evidence from the CEEC-6
Caporale, Guglielmo Maria; Sova, Anamaria Diana; Sova, … - 2021
This paper analyses the relationship between international trade and financial development in six EU members from Central and Eastern Europe (CEEC-6) using dynamic panel data approaches, specifically the system Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) and pooled mean group (PMG) estimators. The...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013315285
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Trade Costs, Market Access and Economic Geography : Why the Empirical Specification of Trade Costs Matters
Bosker, Erik Maarten; Garretsen, Harry - 2021
Trade costs are crucial in new economic geography (NEG) models. The unavailability of actual trade costs data requires the approximation of trade costs. Most NEG studies do not deal with the ramifications of the particular trade costs specification used. This paper shows that the specification...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013316892
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International Trade and Stable Resolutions of Resource Disputes
Garfinkel, Michelle R.; Syropoulos, Constantinos - 2022
We consider a dynamic setting in which two sovereign states with overlapping ownership claims on a resource/asset first arm and then choose whether to resolve their dispute violently through war or peacefully through settlement. Both approaches depend on the states’ military capacities, but...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014243081
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Labour Markets, Trade and Technological Progress : A Meta-Study
Terzidis, Nikos - 2019
Technological progress and trade potentially affect wages and employment. Technological progress can make jobs obsolete and trade can increase unemployment in import competing sectors. Empirical evidence suggests that both causes are important to explain recent labour market developments in many...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012866562