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This paper examines the advantages and drawbacks of alternative methods of estimating oil supply and oil demand elasticities and of incorporating this information into structural VAR models. I not only summarize the state of the literature, but also draw attention to a number of econometric...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012822493
information content). Various forecasting performance tests are carried out which suggest that both implied volatility and …This paper compares volatility forecasts for the RTS Index (the main index for the Russian stock market) generated by … alternative models, specifically option-implied volatility forecasts based on the Black-Scholes model, ARCH/GARCH-type model …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012871648
Oil market VAR models have become the standard tool for understanding the evolution of the real price of oil and its impact in the macro economy. As this literature has expanded at a rapid pace, it has become increasingly difficult for mainstream economists to understand the differences between...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012839764
Baumeister and Hamilton (2019a) assert that every critique of their work on oil markets by Kilian and Zhou (2019a) is without merit. In addition, they make the case that key aspects of the economic and econometric analysis in the widely used oil market model of Kilian and Murphy (2014) and its...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012860298
strength matter for consistent estimation of risk premia and subsequent inference, thus an estimate of factor strength is …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013239328
This paper provides evidence on the degree of persistence of one of the key components of the CAPM, namely the market … risk premium, as well as its volatility. The analysis applies fractional integration methods to data for the US, Germany … characterized as a random walk process, whilst its volatility is less persistent and exhibits stationary long-memory behaviour …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012836946
dynamics of oil price volatility by examining interactions between oil market and exchange rate in selected MENA countries …) to examine the presence of volatility spillover between oil prices and exchange rates return series. The econometric … rates, and ii) there is significant evidence of volatility spillovers from oil markets to exchange rate markets in the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012908723
We propose a new instrument for estimating the price elasticity of gasoline demand that exploits systematic differences across U.S. states in the pass-through of oil price shocks to retail gasoline prices. We show that these differences are primarily driven by the cost of producing and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014358334
describe the most typical features of capital markets like volatility clustering, excess kurtosis and fat tails. As empirical … evidence shows asymmetry is also a prominent feature of stock market returns volatility. The reaction of risk if stock returns …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010270556
The empirical literature of stock market predictability mainly suffers from model uncertainty and parameter instability. To meet this challenge, we propose a novel approach that combines the documented merits of diffusion indices, regime-switching models, and forecast combination to predict the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013250734