We study the inference and experimentation problem of an agent in a situation where the outcomes depend on the …

decreases over time and learning exacerbates his exploitation, unless he has been revealed to be talented. Therefore, the …

Recent field evidence suggests a positive link between overconfidence and innovative activities. In this paper we argue … that the connection between overconfidence and innovation is more complex than the previous literature suggests. In … particular, we show theoretically and experimentally that different forms of overconfidence may have opposing effects on …

We study the effects of overconfidence in a two-period investment-decision agency setting. Under common priors, agent … will update her beliefs upwards more often than not. As a consequence, the agent overestimates the benefits of learning … from first-period investment. This implies that agent overconfidence mitigates the agency problems arising from the agent …

We derive the optimal monetary policy in a sticky price model when private agents follow adaptive learning. We show … order to facilitate private sector learning and thus ease the future intratemporal inflation-output gap trade-offs. The … policy recommendation is robust: the welfare loss entailed by the optimal policy under learning if the private sector …

the nature of the task at the second date further shows that learning is unencumbered by a change in environment. Our … in experimentation and a failure to activate self-regulation mechanisms. …

demand. The former learning effect, combined with the latter real-options effect, adversely affect firms’ entry decisions and …