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and cointegration tests for federal revenues and expenditures, taking into account a structural shift in the budgetary … process related to World War II. We find sustainability over the entire period. However, splitting the sample into two sub …-samples before and after World War II, the results do much less support sustainability. Finally, applying the tax smoothing model of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010261429
analysis, we conduct formal tests on fiscal sustainability, including tests on stationarity and cointegration and the … debt crisis has prompted a fundamental re-evaluation of public debt sustainability and the looming threat of sovereign debt …'s peacetime debt-to-GDP (Gross Domestic Product) ratio has never been higher. In this paper, we analyse the sustainability of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010291882
sustainability if long-term interest rates rise. Bringing back public debt to 60% of GDP even by 2030 would require a fiscal effort …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010288248
While the financial protection measures enacted by the ECB and the community of Eurozone members have calmed financial markets, they have left the competitiveness problem of the Eurozone's southern countries and France unresolved. The paper compares price inflation before the crisis with the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010291507
This paper explores the factors behind the time path of real spending and revenue in the West German states from 1975 to 2004. The empirical approach stresses robustness and takes into account a large set of economic and political variables. Our results suggest that common economic factors and,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010264180
This paper explores how the Stability and Growth Pact may cope with the future costs of population ageing in the European Union. Clearly, population ageing has forced countries to reform their pension systems, and will continue to do so, both by reducing the generosity of pension arrangements...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010264244
We assess the sustainability of public finances in the EU15 using stationarity and cointegration analysis. Specifically … apply modern panel cointegration techniques developed by Pedroni (1999, 2004), generalized by Banerjee and Carrion … revenues. While sustainability may be lacking in individual cases, fiscal policy was overall sustainable both for the EU15 …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010264310
For a sample of sixteen OECD countries over the period 1980-2007 we show that, for given debt-GDP ratio, an increase in the maturity of the public debt by one year lowers its long-term interest rate by around 20-30 basis points. This effect is stronger for countries with higher average inflation...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010323031
term structure of public debt on fiscal sustainability. We adopt the widely used backward-looking measure of fiscal … sustainability – fiscal responsiveness as proposed by Bohn (1998). Using data from De Graeve and Mazzolini (2023) and focusing on a … sole factor explaining the negative impact of longer maturity of public debt on fiscal sustainability. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015175316
decline – especially in high-debt regimes – indicating improved market expectations about fiscal sustainability. In contrast …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015449854