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Predictability of Bull and Bear Markets : A New Look at Forecasting Stock Market Regimes (and Returns) in the Us
Haase, Felix; Neuenkirch, Matthias - 2021
The empirical literature of stock market predictability mainly suffers from model uncertainty and parameter instability. To meet this challenge, we propose a novel approach that combines the documented merits of diffusion indices, regime-switching models, and forecast combination to predict the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013250734
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Liberalization and Stock Market Co-Movement between Emerging Economies
Beine, Michel A. R.; Candelon, Bertrand - 2021
In this paper, we investigate the impact of trade and financial liberalization on the degree of stock market co-movement among emerging economies. Using a sample of 25 developing countries observed over 15 years, we estimate the impact of reforms which aim at opening these countries to trade and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013316796
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Aggregate Insider Trading and Stock Market Volatility in the UK
Caporale, Guglielmo Maria; Kyriacou, Kyriacos; … - 2023
This paper examines the relationship between aggregate insider trading (AIT) and stock market volatility using monthly …-run increase in stock market volatility; this can be attributed to a combination of insiders manipulating the timing and content of …-regulated market, it is plausible that the main driver of the increase in stock market volatility should be the information effect …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014347820
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Bitcoin Fluctuations and the Frequency of Price Overreactions
Caporale, Guglielmo Maria - 2019
This paper investigates the role of the frequency of price overreactions in the cryptocurrency market in the case of BitCoin over the period 2013-2018. Specifically, it uses a static approach to detect overreactions and then carries out hypothesis testing by means of a variety of statistical...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012892294
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The Dynamics of Households' Stock Market Beliefs
Gaudecker, Hans-Martin von - 2019
We analyse a long panel of households’ stock market beliefs to gain insights into the nature of their expectations formation processes. We classify respondents into one of five groups based on their data and estimate group-wise models of expectations formation. Two of the groups are at...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012871761
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Gold and Oil Prices : Abnormal Returns, Momentum and Contrarian Effects
Caporale, Guglielmo Maria - 2020
This paper explores price (momentum and contrarian) effects on the days characterised by abnormal returns and the following ones in two commodity markets. Specifically, using daily Gold and Oil price data over the period 01.01.2009-31.03.2020 the following hypotheses are tested: H1) there are...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012827113
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Momentum Effects in the Cryptocurrency Market after One-Day Abnormal Returns
Caporale, Guglielmo Maria - 2019
This paper examines whether there exists a momentum effect after one-day abnormal returns in the cryptocurrency market. For this purpose a number of hypotheses of interest are tested for the BitCoin, Ethereum and LiteCoin exchange rates vis-à-vis the US dollar over the period...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012859990
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Persistence in the Russian Stock Market Volatility Indices
Caporale, Guglielmo Maria - 2018
volatility índices (namely the originally created RTSVX and the new RVI that has replaced it), using daily data over the period …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012908651
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Investors' Trading Behaviour and Stock Market Volatility During Crisis Periods : A Dual Long-Memory Model for the Korean Stock Exchange
Caporale, Guglielmo Maria - 2020
This study examines the impact of investors' buy and sell trades on Korean stock market volatility across two crisis … on volatility that depends on the type of investor trading and on the phase of the business cycle. Buy orders appear to … be more informative than sell orders since they mostly lower volatility in the pre-crisis periods, while sell and post …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012845690
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The Economic Effects of Brexit - Evidence from the Stock Market
Breinlich, Holger - 2018
We study stock market reactions to the Brexit referendum on 23 June 2016 in order to assess investors’ expectations about the effects of leaving the European Union on the UK economy. Our results suggest that initial stock price movements were driven by fears of a cyclical downturn and by the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012908678