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Volatility Forecasts for the RTS Stock Index : Option-Implied Volatility Versus Alternative Methods
Caporale, Guglielmo Maria - 2019
This paper compares volatility forecasts for the RTS Index (the main index for the Russian stock market) generated by … alternative models, specifically option-implied volatility forecasts based on the Black-Scholes model, ARCH/GARCH-type model … information content). Various forecasting performance tests are carried out which suggest that both implied volatility and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012871648
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Predictability of Bull and Bear Markets : A New Look at Forecasting Stock Market Regimes (and Returns) in the Us
Haase, Felix; Neuenkirch, Matthias - 2021
The empirical literature of stock market predictability mainly suffers from model uncertainty and parameter instability. To meet this challenge, we propose a novel approach that combines the documented merits of diffusion indices, regime-switching models, and forecast combination to predict the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013250734
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Oil Prices, Exchange Rates and Sectoral Stock Returns in the BRICS-T Countries : A Time-Varying Approach
Caporale, Guglielmo Maria; Catik, Abdurrahman Nazif; … - 2021
This paper analyses the effects of oil prices and exchange rates on sectoral stock returns in the BRICS-T countries over the period from 2 January 2001 to 22 March 2021. After estimating a benchmark linear model, the possible presence of structural breaks is investigated using the Bai and Perron...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013211113
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Real-Time Forecasting Using Mixed-Frequency Vars with Time-Varying Parameters
Heinrich, Markus - 2020
by evaluating a mixed-frequency time-varying parameter VAR with stochastic volatility (MF-TVP-SV-VAR). Overall, the MF …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012842676
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Forecasting with Panel Data : Estimation Uncertainty Versus Parameter Heterogeneity
Pesaran, M. Hashem; Pick, Andreas; Timmermann, Allan - 2022
We develop novel forecasting methods for panel data with heterogeneous parameters and examine them together with existing approaches. We conduct a systematic comparison of their predictive accuracy in settings with different cross-sectional (N) and time (T) dimensions and varying degrees of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013292495
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Persistence in High Frequency Financial Data
Caporale, Guglielmo Maria; Plastun, Alex - 2022
This paper investigates persistence in high-frequency, intraday data (and also daily and monthly ones) in the case of the EuroStoxx 50 futures over the period from 2002 to 2018 (720 million trade records) using R/S analysis and the Hurst exponent as a measure of persistence. The results indicate...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014242794
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Understanding the Estimation of Oil Demand and Oil Supply Elasticities
Kilian, Lutz - 2020
This paper examines the advantages and drawbacks of alternative methods of estimating oil supply and oil demand elasticities and of incorporating this information into structural VAR models. I not only summarize the state of the literature, but also draw attention to a number of econometric...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012822493
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57 Channels (and Nothin on) - Does TV-News on the Eurozone Affect Government Bond Yield Spreads?
Wolfinger, Julia - 2019
This paper empirically investigates the relationship between TV news coverage and the GIIPS countries’ bond yield spreads using daily data between January 1, 2007 and December 1, 2016. We employ 1,542,233 human coded news items from evening news shows of leading TV stations in 12 countries...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012892159
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Factor Strengths, Pricing Errors, and Estimation of Risk Premia
Pesaran, M. Hashem; Smith, Ron - 2021
strength matter for consistent estimation of risk premia and subsequent inference, thus an estimate of factor strength is …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013239328
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Persistence in the Market Risk Premium : Evidence Across Countries
Caporale, Guglielmo Maria - 2020
risk premium, as well as its volatility. The analysis applies fractional integration methods to data for the US, Germany … characterized as a random walk process, whilst its volatility is less persistent and exhibits stationary long-memory behaviour …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012836946