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matrix and averages model estimates across all data releases. Using standard forecasting and policy models to analyze … monetary authorities' reaction functions, we show that this simple method can improve forecasting performance and provide …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010274753
We study the information flow from the ECB on policy dates since its inception, using tick data. We show that three factors capture about all of the variation in the yield curve but that these are different factors with different variance shares in the window that contains the policy decision...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012867012
Central banks unexpectedly tightening policy rates often observe the exchange value of their currency depreciate, rather than appreciate as predicted by standard models. We document this for Fed and ECB policy days using eventstudies and ask whether an information effect, where the public...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012822502
We study monetary policy in a New Keynesian model with a variable credit spread and scope for central bank asset purchases to matter. A novel financial and labor market interaction generates an endogenous cost-push channel in the Phillips curve and a credit wedge in the IS curve. The “divine...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014357043
We examine the role of money in the policies of the ECB, using introductory statements of the ECB President at the monthly press conferences during 1999-2004. Over time, the relative amount of words devoted to the monetary analysis has decreased. Our analysis of indicators of the monetary policy...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010261407
High-frequency changes in interest rates around FOMC announcements are a standard method of measuring monetary policy shocks. However, some recent studies have documented puzzling effects of these shocks on private-sector forecasts of GDP, unemployment, or inflation that are opposite in sign to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012839776
This paper examines the usefulness of shadow rates to measure the monetary policy stance by comparing them to the official policy rates and those implied by three types of Taylor rules in both inflation targeting countries (the UK, Canada, Australia and New Zealand) and others that have only...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014080605
parameters we compare the out-of-sample forecasting performance of an inflation model including a shadow rate interaction term …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013292499
This paper studies how household inequality shapes the effects of the zero lower bound (ZLB) on nominal interest rates on aggregate dynamics. To do so, we consider a heterogeneous agent New Keynesian (HANK) model with an occasionally binding ZLB and solve for its fully nonlinear stochastic...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014348051
Macroeconomic news announcements are elaborate and multi-dimensional. We consider a framework in which jumps in asset prices around macroeconomic news and monetary policy announcements reflect both the response to observed surprises in headline numbers and latent factors, reflecting other...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012908673