FX trade settlement data from CLS provides the most comprehensive view of the opaque market of OTC currency trades. We use the flows of investment funds and non-financial corporates and develop trading signals where the former reflects speculative strategies, while the latter trade for liquidity...

This paper estimates a model of the real exchange rate including standard fundamentals as well as two alternative measures of inflation expectations for five inflation targeting countries (UK, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, Sweden) over the period January 1993-July 2019. Both a benchmark linear...

We document a strong political cycle in bank credit and industry outcomes in Turkey. In line with theories of tactical redistribution, state-owned banks systematically adjust their lending around local elections compared with private banks in the same province based on electoral competition and...

Contrary to most existing studies of the literature that assumed that the effects of real exchange rate (RE) misalignment on trade flows are symmetric, this paper considers a more general and realistic framework allowing for possible asymmetric effects. We use monthly time-series data over the...

This paper sheds new light on a long-standing puzzle in the international finance literature, namely, that exchange rate expectations appear inaccurate and even irrational. We find for a comprehensive dataset that individual forecasters' performance is skill-based. 'Superior' forecasters show...

We empirically investigate the relationship between a country's economic complexity and the diversity in the birthplaces of its immigrants. Our cross-country analysis suggests that birthplace diversity is strongly and positively associated with economic complexity. This holds particularly for...

The nexus between corruption and economic growth has been examined for a long time. Many empirical studies measured corruption by the reversed Transparency International's Perception of Corruption Index (CPI) and ignored that the CPI was not comparable over time. The CPI is comparable over time...

One of the core indicators in the field of scientometrics is the number of papers published by a unit within a given period. However, such indicators can only be assessed properly by considering the unit's available resources. When evaluating the efficiency of institutions worldwide, the problem...