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The Economic Effects of International Sanctions : An Event Study
Gutmann, Jerg; Neuenkirch, Matthias; Neumeier, Florian - 2021
Although international sanctions are a widely used instrument of coercion, their economic effects are still not fully understood. This study uses a novel dataset and an event study approach to evaluate the economic consequences of international sanctions, thereby accounting for pre-treatment...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013232415
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Understanding the Estimation of Oil Demand and Oil Supply Elasticities
Kilian, Lutz - 2020
This paper examines the advantages and drawbacks of alternative methods of estimating oil supply and oil demand elasticities and of incorporating this information into structural VAR models. I not only summarize the state of the literature, but also draw attention to a number of econometric...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012822493
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Intraday Effect of News on Emerging European Forex Markets : An Event Study Analysis
Kočenda, Evžen - 2018
We analyze the impact of Eurozone/Germany and U.S. macroeconomic news announcements and the communication of the monetary policy settings of the ECB and the Fed on the forex markets of new EU members. We employ an event study methodology to analyze intra-day data from 2011–2015. Our...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012908658
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Does Drawing Down the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve Help Stabilize Oil Prices?
Kilian, Lutz - 2019
We study the efficacy of releases from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) within the context of fully specified …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012865918
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The Effects of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Stock Markets, CDS and Economic Activity : Time-Varying Evidence from the US and Europe
Caporale, Guglielmo Maria; Catik, Abdurrahman Nazif; … - 2021
benchmark linear VAR models and then, given the evidence of parameter instability, TVP-VAR models with stochastic volatility …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013211119
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The Econometrics of Oil Market VAR Models
Kilian, Lutz - 2020
Oil market VAR models have become the standard tool for understanding the evolution of the real price of oil and its impact in the macro economy. As this literature has expanded at a rapid pace, it has become increasingly difficult for mainstream economists to understand the differences between...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012839764
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Facts and Fiction in Oil Market Modeling
Kilian, Lutz - 2019
Baumeister and Hamilton (2019a) assert that every critique of their work on oil markets by Kilian and Zhou (2019a) is without merit. In addition, they make the case that key aspects of the economic and econometric analysis in the widely used oil market model of Kilian and Murphy (2014) and its...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012860298
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Monetary Policy Surprises and Exchange Rate Behavior
Gürkaynak, Refet S. - 2020
Central banks unexpectedly tightening policy rates often observe the exchange value of their currency depreciate, rather than appreciate as predicted by standard models. We document this for Fed and ECB policy days using eventstudies and ask whether an information effect, where the public...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012822502
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Sustainable Stocks and the Russian War on Ukraine - an Event Study in Europe
Kick, Andreas; Rottmann, Horst - 2022
The popularity of sustainable investments is unbroken and attracts investors and researchers alike. Modelling the properties of such ‘green’ firms, Pástor, Stambaugh, and Taylor 2021 consider a hedge against climate risks in their theoretical model. Likewise, it could be assumed that...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014082162
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Volatility Forecasts for the RTS Stock Index : Option-Implied Volatility Versus Alternative Methods
Caporale, Guglielmo Maria - 2019
This paper compares volatility forecasts for the RTS Index (the main index for the Russian stock market) generated by … alternative models, specifically option-implied volatility forecasts based on the Black-Scholes model, ARCH/GARCH-type model … information content). Various forecasting performance tests are carried out which suggest that both implied volatility and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012871648