to forecasting area-wide industrial production. To this end, we use various tests that are designed to compare competing …

matrix and averages model estimates across all data releases. Using standard forecasting and policy models to analyze … monetary authorities' reaction functions, we show that this simple method can improve forecasting performance and provide …

aggregates are time-varying, much of the literature on forecasting aggregates considers the case of linear aggregates with fixed … with simulations. Two examples based on European unemployment and inflation series are used to illustrate the virtue of the … theoretical setup and the forecasting results. …

The use of large datasets for macroeconomic forecasting has received a great deal of interest recently. Boosting is one … forecasting a wide range of macroeconomic variables. Moreover, we analyse to what extent its forecasting accuracy depends on the …

, inflation, real exchange rate, oil exports, and foreign real output, the paper finds clear evidence for two long run relations …: an output equation as predicted by the theory and a standard real money demand equation with inflation acting as a proxy … significant negative long run association between inflation and real GDP, which is suggestive of economic inefficiencies. Once the …

transforms can be manipulated by changing the order of variables in the forecasting model. We derive order invariant tests. The …

. Forecast uncertainty is evaluated in three different dimensions. First, we investigate the effect on forecasting performance of …

This paper considers the problem of forecasting real and financial macroeconomic variables across a large number of … ahead forecasts of real output, inflation, real equity prices, exchange rates and interest rates over the period 2004Q1 … output, inflation and real equity prices. …