While fossil energy dependency has declined and energy supply has grown in the postwar world economy, future resource scarcity could cast its shadow on world economic growth soon if energy markets are forward looking. We develop an endogenous growth model that reconciles the current aggregate...

The recent plunge in oil prices has brought into question the generally accepted view that lower oil prices are good for the US and the global economy. In this paper, using a quarterly multi-country econometric model, we first show that a fall in oil prices tends relatively quickly to lower...

This paper analyses a set of new scenarios for energy markets in Europe to evaluate the consistency of economic incentives and climate objectives. It focuses in particular on the role of natural gas across a range of climate policy scenarios (including the Copenhagen Pledges and the EU Roadmap)...

Based on recent empirical evidence, this paper includes human capital and knowledge in an integrated assessment model and it assesses the interplay between innovation, human capital, climate change, and education policies. Results indicate that climate policy stimulates a dedicated form of...

In this paper, we outline material and capital linkages across sectors to quantify the role of the German production network in amplifying sectoral dynamics on aggregate trend gross domestic product growth. This allows us to study the impact of sectoral labor input and total factor productivity...

Recently, Baumeister and Hamilton (henceforth: BH) have argued that existing studies of the global oil market fail to account for uncertainty about their identifying assumptions. They recommend an alternative econometric approach intended to address this concern by formulating priors on the...

This paper investigates the inflation effects of oil price expectations shocks constructed as functional shocks, i.e. as shifts in the entire oil futures term structure (both standard and risk-adjusted). The latter are then included in a vector autoregressive model with exogenous variables...

A new procedure to trace the sources of contagion in the oil-finance nexus is proposed. We do this by consolidating veteran rules derived from the empirical oil literature to filter oil supply, global demand, and oil demand shocks into discrete typical and extreme conditions. We show how these...

This paper investigates the time-varying impact of oil price uncertainty on stock prices in China using weekly data on ten sectoral indices over the period January 1997-Febraury 2014. The estimation of a bivariate VAR-GARCH-in-mean model suggests that oil price volatility affects stock returns...

This paper investigates the global macroeconomic consequences of country-specific oil-supply shocks. Our contribution is both theoretical and empirical. On the theoretical side, we develop a model for the global oil market and integrate this within a compact quarterly model of the global economy...