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Real-Time Forecasting Using Mixed-Frequency Vars with Time-Varying Parameters
Heinrich, Markus - 2020
This paper provides a detailed assessment of the real-time forecast accuracy of a wide range of vector autoregressive models (VAR) that allow for both structural change and indicators sampled at different frequencies. We extend the literature by evaluating a mixed-frequency time-varying...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012842676
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Forecasting GDP All Over the World Using Leading Indicators Based on Comprehensive Survey Data
Garnitz, Johanna - 2019
Comprehensive and international comparable leading indicators across countries and continents are rare. In this paper, we use a free and instantaneous available source of leading indicators, the ifo World Economic Survey (WES), to forecast growth of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 44 countries...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012867868
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ROC and PRC Approaches to Evaluate Recession Forecasts
Lahiri, Kajal; Yang, Cheng - 2023
We have studied the relationship between Receiver Operating Characteristics (ROC) and Precision-Recall Curve (PRC) both analytically and using a real-life empirical example of yield spread as a predictor of recessions. We show that false alarm rate in ROC and inverted precision in PRC are...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014348182
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News Media vs. FRED-MD for Macroeconomic Forecasting
Ellingsen, Jon; Larsen, Vegard; Thorsrud, Leif Anders - 2021
-time out-of-sample forecasting comparison study with one of the most widely used data sets in the newer forecasting literature … for forecasting consumption developments …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013315147
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Measuring Uncertainty of a Combined Forecast and Some Tests for Forecaster Heterogeneity
Lahiri, Kajal; Peng, Huaming; Sheng, Xuguang - 2021
We have argued that from the standpoint of a policy maker who has access to a number of expert forecasts, the uncertainty of a combined forecast should be interpreted as that of a typical forecaster randomly drawn from the pool. With a standard factor decomposition of a panel of forecasts, we...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013251262
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Tracking and Predicting the German Economy : Ifo vs. Pmi
Lehmann, Robert - 2020
This analysis investigates the predictive power of the most important leading indicators for the German economy, which are provided by the ifo Institute and IHS Markit. We conduct an out-of-sample, real-time forecast experiment for growth of gross domestic product and growth of gross value added...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012839771
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Electoral Cycles in Macroeconomic Forecasts
Cipullo, Davide; Reslow, André - 2021
This paper documents the existence of Political Forecast Cycles. In a theoretical model of political selection, we show that governments release overly optimistic GDP growth forecasts ahead of elections to increase the reelection probability. The bias arises from lack of commitment if voters are...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013226657
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Forecasting with Panel Data : Estimation Uncertainty Versus Parameter Heterogeneity
Pesaran, M. Hashem; Pick, Andreas; Timmermann, Allan - 2022
We develop novel forecasting methods for panel data with heterogeneous parameters and examine them together with … forecasting methods can perform better than forecasts based on individual estimates and demonstrate how gains in predictive … stock returns, we show that no single forecasting approach dominates uniformly. However, forecast combination and shrinkage …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013292495
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Quantifying Qualitative Survey Data : New Insights on the (Ir)Rationality of Firms' Forecasts
Botsis, Alexandros - 2020
Using a novel dataset that contains qualitative firm survey data on sales forecasts as well as balance-sheet data on realized sales, we document that only major forecast errors are predictable and display autocorrelation. This result is a particular violation of the Full Information Rational...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012839767
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Imputing Monthly Values for Quarterly Time Series. An Application Performed with Swiss Business Cycle Data
Abberger, Klaus; Graff, Michael; Müller, Oliver; … - 2023
tests of forecasting accuracy by comparing the imputed monthly series to the original monthly series. Finally, we take a …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014262560