This paper introduces a formal definition and an experimental measurement of the concept of cognitive uncertainty …: people's subjective uncertainty about what the optimal action is. This concept allows us to bring together and partially … explain a set of behavioral anomalies identified across four distinct domains of decision-making: choice under risk, choice …

A large literature suggests that the expected equity risk premium is countercyclical. Using a variety of different … measures for this risk premium, we document that it also exhibits growth asymmetry, i.e. the risk premium rises sharply in … which agents cannot perfectly observe the state of current productivity, can generate the observed asymmetry in the risk …

How does economic uncertainty affect the impact of tax policy? We exploit a natural experiment in which two very …, and once during a period of very high uncertainty. Exploiting sharp discontinuities in eligibility and using rich … administrative data, we find that firms exposed to high uncertainty decide to "wait and see" before investing, despite generous …

We analyse the extent to which firm-level uncertainty is affected by aggregate uncertainty. Firm-level uncertainty is … constructed from a large and monthly panel dataset of manufacturing firms. We find that aggregate uncertainty has a positive and … robust impact on firm-level uncertainty. This effect holds across different types of domestic and international measures of …

When agents’ information is imperfect and dispersed, existing measures of macroeconomic uncertainty based on the … dispersion. The former driver increases uncertainty and reduces agents’ disagreement (agreed uncertainty). The latter increases … both uncertainty and disagreement (disagreed uncertainty). We use these implications to identify empirically the effects of …

common and a sector-specific uncertainty component. We apply our framework to a large dataset of disaggregated industrial … production series for the US economy. Our results indicate that common uncertainty and uncertainty linked to nondurable goods … both recorded their pre-pandemic global peaks during the 1973-75 recession. In contrast, durable goods uncertainty recorded …

choice deviate from what citizens want but that an increase in uncertainty about policy outcomes decreases this distortion …

We estimate a novel measure of global financial uncertainty (GFU) with a dynamic factor framework that jointly models … also unveil the existence of a global finance uncertainty multiplier: the more global financial conditions deteriorate …

Macroeconomic uncertainty affects the subjective distribution of individual expectations. Using four panel datasets, we … document the effects of macro uncertainty on the mean expectation (first moment) and subjective uncertainty (second moment) of … income forecasts. We find that macro uncertainty reduces the mean expectation of income when using professional forecasters …

This paper investigates the effect of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on gambling activity in China. Based on a …