Showing 1 - 10 of 2,503
Using quarterly data on four commodity exporting countries, we study the explanatory power of real commodity prices for predicting real effective exchange rates, with special attention to the separate roles of different sectoral commodity prices during alternative time periods. We find that the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014244327
The importance of units with pervasive impacts on a large number of other units in a network has become increasingly recognized in the literature. In this paper we propose a new method to detect such influential or dominant units by basing our analysis on unit-specific residual error variances...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012892182
addition the estimation of the number of factors as well as the factors themselves. Small sample properties of the proposed …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013316613
1996-2007, we show that firms with higher export intensity exhibit a lower volatility of skilled labor demand relative to … the volatility of unskilled labor demand. Our identification strategy is based on an instrumental variable approach to … provide evidence on the causal effect of the export performance of the firm on the volatility of employment of different …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012892069
This paper compares volatility forecasts for the RTS Index (the main index for the Russian stock market) generated by … alternative models, specifically option-implied volatility forecasts based on the Black-Scholes model, ARCH/GARCH-type model … information content). Various forecasting performance tests are carried out which suggest that both implied volatility and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012871648
, and (iii) employment protection – shape fiscal multipliers and output volatility. Our theoretical model highlights that … more stringent labor market institutions attenuate both fiscal spending multipliers and macroeconomic volatility. This is …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014083477
This paper investigates persistence in high-frequency, intraday data (and also daily and monthly ones) in the case of the EuroStoxx 50 futures over the period from 2002 to 2018 (720 million trade records) using R/S analysis and the Hurst exponent as a measure of persistence. The results indicate...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014242794
This paper introduces the probabilistic formulation of continuous-time economic models: forward stochastic differential equations (SDE) govern the dynamics of backward-looking variables, and backward SDEs capture that of forward-looking variables. Deep learning streamlines the search for the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014345557
This paper studies the volatility of commodity prices on the basis of a large dataset of monthly prices observed in … evidence does not actually attempt to measure the volatility of prices of individual goods or commodities. The literature tends … to focus on trends in the evolution and volatility of ratios of price indexes composed of multiple commodities and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010280809
policy is purely to stabilize output or debt volatility, then our results suggest substantial reductions can be obtained …, especially with respect to output. In stark contrast, however, a formal general equilibrium welfare assessment of the volatility …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012773638