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Nowcasting Regional GDP: The Case of the Free State of Saxony
Henzel, Steffen; Lehmann, Robert; Wohlrabe, Klaus - 2015
We tackle the nowcasting problem at the regional level using a large set of indicators (regional, national and … useful information for the prediction of regional GDP in Saxony. Unlike national GDP forecasts, the performance of regional … GDP is similar across different information sets within a quarter. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010531825
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A Comparison of Monthly Global Indicators for Forecasting Growth
Baumeister, Christiane; Guérin, Pierre - 2020
nowcasting and forecasting quarterly world GDP using mixed-frequency models. We find that a recently proposed indicator that …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012425562
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A Multi-Country Approach to Forecasting Output Growth Using PMIs
Chudik, Alexander; Grossman, Valerie; Pesaran, M. Hashem - 2014
that (a) regardless of the forecasting methods considered, PMIs are useful for nowcasting, but their value added diminishes …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010435799
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Seven Pitfalls of Technical Analysis
Caporale, Guglielmo Maria; Plastun, Alex - 2023
This paper examines the main drawbacks of technical analysis. Although this is widely used by practitioners, from an academic perspective it can only be seen as a form of "voodoo finance". In particular, it runs into the following pitfalls: Subjectivity; Doubtful assumptions; Unjustified...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014290123
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The "Matthew Effect" and Market Concentration: Search Complementarities and Monopsony Power
Fernández-Villaverde, Jesús; Mandelman, Federico; Yu, Yang - 2021
This paper develops a dynamic general equilibrium model with heterogeneous firms that face search complementarities in the formation of vendor contracts. Search complementarities amplify small differences in productivity among firms. Market concentration fosters monopsony power in the labor...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012493043
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Bargaining Shocks and Aggregate Fluctuations
Drautzburg, Thorsten; Fernández-Villaverde, Jesús; … - 2021
We argue that social and political risk causes significant aggregate fluctuations by changing workers’ bargaining power. Using a Bayesian proxy-VAR estimated with U.S. data, we show how distribution shocks trigger output and unemployment movements. To quantify the aggregate importance of these...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012582052
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The Great Mortgaging: Housing Finance, Crises, and Business Cycles
Jordà, Òscar; Schularick, Moritz; Taylor, Alan M. - 2014
This paper unveils a new resource for macroeconomic research: a long-run dataset covering disaggregated bank credit for 17 advanced economies since 1870. The new data show that the share of mortgages on banks' balance sheets doubled in the course of the 20th century, driven by a sharp rise of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010420692
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The "Matthew Effect" and Market Concentration : Search Complementarities and Monopsony Power
Fernández-Villaverde, Jesús; Mandelman, Federico; Yu, Yang - 2021
This paper develops a dynamic general equilibrium model with heterogeneous firms that face search complementarities in the formation of vendor contracts. Search complementarities amplify small differences in productivity among firms. Market concentration fosters monopsony power in the labor...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013245629
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Bargaining Shocks and Aggregate Fluctuations
Drautzburg, Thorsten; Fernández-Villaverde, Jesús; … - 2021
We argue that social and political risk causes significant aggregate fluctuations by changing workers’ bargaining power. Using a Bayesian proxy-VAR estimated with U.S. data, we show how distribution shocks trigger output and unemployment movements. To quantify the aggregate importance of these...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013235101
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Technological Synergies, Heterogeneous Firms, and Idiosyncratic Volatility
Fernández-Villaverde, Jésus; Yu, Yang; Zanetti, Francesco - 2024
This paper shows the importance of technological synergies among heterogeneous firms for aggregate fluctuations. First, we document six novel empirical facts using microdata that suggest the existence of important technological synergies between trading firms, the presence of positive...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014534293