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Understanding the Estimation of Oil Demand and Oil Supply Elasticities

Kilian, Lutz - 2020

This paper examines the advantages and drawbacks of alternative methods of estimating oil supply and oil demand … conclusion that the one-month oil supply elasticity is close to zero, which implies that oil demand shocks are the dominant …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012822493

A Life-Cycle Analysis of French Household Electricity Demand

Bélaïd, Fateh; Rault, Christophe; Massié, Camille - 2021

This paper develops a pseudo-panel approach to examine household electricity demand behaviour through the household … evidence that the income elasticity of French residential electricity demand is 0.22, averaged over our four cohorts of …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013250745

Heterogeneity in the Pass-Through from Oil to Gasoline Prices : A New Instrument for Estimating the Price Elasticity of Gasoline Demand

Kilian, Lutz; Zhou, Xiaoqing - 2023

We propose a new instrument for estimating the price elasticity of gasoline demand that exploits systematic differences … response to an aggregate oil price shock. Time-varying estimates do not support the view that the gasoline demand elasticity … rose to about -0.2 in 2015-16, but has remained stable since 2016. Gasoline demand is more responsive in states with lower …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014358334

The EU Self-Surplus Puzzle : An Indication of VAT Fraud?

Braml, Martin - 2020

The world runs a trade surplus with itself: the reported values of exports exceed the reported values of imports. This is a logically impossible but well-known empirical fact. Less well-known is the fact that, in recent years, more than 80 percent of the global surplus is a trade surplus that...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012844666

Persistence, Non-Linearities and Structural Breaks in European Stock Market Indices

Caporale, Guglielmo Maria - 2019

This paper examines persistence, structural breaks and non-linearities in the case of five European stock market indices, namely the FTSE100 (UK), DAX30 (Germany), CAC40 (France), IBEX35 (Spain) and FTSE MIB40 (Italy), using fractional integration methods. The empirical results provide no...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012866377

Forecasting GDP All Over the World Using Leading Indicators Based on Comprehensive Survey Data

Garnitz, Johanna - 2019

Comprehensive and international comparable leading indicators across countries and continents are rare. In this paper, we use a free and instantaneous available source of leading indicators, the ifo World Economic Survey (WES), to forecast growth of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 44 countries...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012867868

Forecasting Exports Across Europe : What are the Superior Survey Indicators?

Lehmann, Robert - 2019

volatile and turn out to be a large demand-side component of gross domestic product, our results can be used by applied …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012861426

Uncertainty Shocks and Financial Crisis Indicators

Hristov, Nikolay - 2019

The current paper broadens the understanding of the role played by uncertainty in the context of macroeconomic fluctuations. It focuses on the implications of uncertainty shocks for indicators that tend to precede financial crises. In an empirical analysis we show for a set of four euro area...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012861435

Tracking Weekly State-Level Economic Conditions

Baumeister, Christiane; Leiva-Leon, Danilo; Sims, Eric R. - 2021

In this paper, we develop a novel dataset of weekly economic conditions indices for the 50 U.S. states going back to 1987 based on mixed-frequency dynamic factor models with weekly, monthly, and quarterly variables that cover multiple dimensions of state economies. We show that there is...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013220135

Persistence in ESG and Conventional Stock Market Indices

Caporale, Guglielmo Maria; Gil-Alana, Luis A.; Plastun, Alex - 2021

This paper uses R/S analysis and fractional integration techniques to examine the persistence of two sets of 12 ESG and conventional stock price indices from the MSCI database over the period 2007-2020 for a large number of both developed and emerging markets. Both sets of results imply that...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013225332

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