This paper introduces a formal definition and an experimental measurement of the concept of cognitive uncertainty …: people's subjective uncertainty about what the optimal action is. This concept allows us to bring together and partially …. Building on existing models of noisy Bayesian cognition, we formally propose that cognitive uncertainty generates these …

premium. Key for this result are endogenous fluctuations in uncertainty which induce procyclical variations in agent's nowcast …

How does economic uncertainty affect the impact of tax policy? We exploit a natural experiment in which two very …, and once during a period of very high uncertainty. Exploiting sharp discontinuities in eligibility and using rich … administrative data, we find that firms exposed to high uncertainty decide to "wait and see" before investing, despite generous …

We analyse the extent to which firm-level uncertainty is affected by aggregate uncertainty. Firm-level uncertainty is … constructed from a large and monthly panel dataset of manufacturing firms. We find that aggregate uncertainty has a positive and … robust impact on firm-level uncertainty. This effect holds across different types of domestic and international measures of …

choice deviate from what citizens want but that an increase in uncertainty about policy outcomes decreases this distortion …

We estimate a novel measure of global financial uncertainty (GFU) with a dynamic factor framework that jointly models … also unveil the existence of a global finance uncertainty multiplier: the more global financial conditions deteriorate …

Macroeconomic uncertainty affects the subjective distribution of individual expectations. Using four panel datasets, we … document the effects of macro uncertainty on the mean expectation (first moment) and subjective uncertainty (second moment) of … income forecasts. We find that macro uncertainty reduces the mean expectation of income when using professional forecasters …

When agents’ information is imperfect and dispersed, existing measures of macroeconomic uncertainty based on the … dispersion. The former driver increases uncertainty and reduces agents’ disagreement (agreed uncertainty). The latter increases … both uncertainty and disagreement (disagreed uncertainty). We use these implications to identify empirically the effects of …

This paper investigates the effect of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on gambling activity in China. Based on a …

common and a sector-specific uncertainty component. We apply our framework to a large dataset of disaggregated industrial … production series for the US economy. Our results indicate that common uncertainty and uncertainty linked to nondurable goods … both recorded their pre-pandemic global peaks during the 1973-75 recession. In contrast, durable goods uncertainty recorded …