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Predictability of Bull and Bear Markets : A New Look at Forecasting Stock Market Regimes (and Returns) in the Us

Haase, Felix; Neuenkirch, Matthias - 2021

The empirical literature of stock market predictability mainly suffers from model uncertainty and parameter instability. To meet this challenge, we propose a novel approach that combines the documented merits of diffusion indices, regime-switching models, and forecast combination to predict the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013250734

Corporate Debt and Stock Returns : Evidence from U.S. Firms During the 2020 Oil Crash

Arezki, Rabah; Cho, Caleb; Nguyen, Ha; Nguyen, Kate; … - 2022

This paper explores the effect of oil price fluctuations on the stock returns of U.S. oil firms using a strategy of identification through heteroskedasticity exploiting the 2020 oil crash. Results are twofold. First, we find that a decline in oil prices statistically significantly reduces stock...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014083040

Rising to the Challenge : Bayesian Estimation and Forecasting Techniques for Macroeconomic Agent-Based Models

Delli Gatti, Domenico - 2019

We propose two novel methods to "bring ABMs to the data". First, we put forward a new Bayesian procedure to estimate the numerical values of ABM parameters that takes into account the time structure of simulated and observed time series. Second, we propose a method to forecast aggregate time...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012860573

Oil Prices, Exchange Rates and Sectoral Stock Returns in the BRICS-T Countries : A Time-Varying Approach

Caporale, Guglielmo Maria; Catik, Abdurrahman Nazif; … - 2021

This paper analyses the effects of oil prices and exchange rates on sectoral stock returns in the BRICS-T countries over the period from 2 January 2001 to 22 March 2021. After estimating a benchmark linear model, the possible presence of structural breaks is investigated using the Bai and Perron...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013211113

Macroeconomics and the Environment : A Selective Survey

Sen, Partha - 2020

? National income accounts do not take into account non-market activities. Some progress has been made in the theory and …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012839360

The Socio-Economics of Pandemics Policy

Snower, Dennis - 2020

In response to the Covid-19 pandemic, governments around the world have provided a massive fiscal and monetary stimulus … selfish individuals and more on the mobilization of people's prosocial motives. Finally, to encourage people around the world … encourage people around the world to cooperate globally in tackling global problems, with the aid of two powerful tools that …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012832196

Momentum Effects in the Cryptocurrency Market after One-Day Abnormal Returns

Caporale, Guglielmo Maria - 2019

This paper examines whether there exists a momentum effect after one-day abnormal returns in the cryptocurrency market. For this purpose a number of hypotheses of interest are tested for the BitCoin, Ethereum and LiteCoin exchange rates vis-à-vis the US dollar over the period...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012859990

The Frequency of One-Day Abnormal Returns and Price Fluctuations in the Forex

Caporale, Guglielmo Maria - 2020

This paper analyses the explanatory power of the frequency of abnormal returns in the FOREX for the EURUSD, GBRUSD, USDJPY, EURJPY, GBPCHF, AUDUSD and USDCAD exchange rates over the period 1994-2019. Abnormal returns are detected using a dynamic trigger approach; then the following hypotheses...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012837673

Gold and Oil Prices : Abnormal Returns, Momentum and Contrarian Effects

Caporale, Guglielmo Maria - 2020

This paper explores price (momentum and contrarian) effects on the days characterised by abnormal returns and the following ones in two commodity markets. Specifically, using daily Gold and Oil price data over the period 01.01.2009-31.03.2020 the following hypotheses are tested: H1) there are...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012827113

Witching Days and Abnormal Profits in the US Stock Market

Caporale, Guglielmo Maria; Plastun, Alex - 2021

This paper examines price effects related to witching days in the US stock market using both weekly and daily data for three major indices, namely the Dow Jones, SP500 and Nasdaq, over the period 2000-2021. First it analyses whether or not anomalies in price behaviour arise from witching by...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013323081

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