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Oil market VAR models have become the standard tool for understanding the evolution of the real price of oil and its impact in the macro economy. As this literature has expanded at a rapid pace, it has become increasingly difficult for mainstream economists to understand the differences between...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012839764
Employing an endogenous growth model with human capital, this paper explores how productivity shocks in the goods and human capital producing sectors contribute to explaining aggregate fluctuations in output, consumption, investment and hours. Given the importance of accounting for both the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013120659
We explore the effects of the ECB's unconventional monetary policy on the banks' sovereign debt portfolios. In particular, using panel vector autoregressive (VAR) models we analyze whether banks increased their domestic government bond holdings in response to non-standard monetary policy shocks,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012838235
due to a fiscal policy shock, as compared to when the rise in output is due to a positive technology shock. The cross ….75 when the rise in output follows from a favorable output shock …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012892134
residuals of the policy rule equation at these shock dates accordingly. In spite of its utmost agnostic nature, this approach …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012822501
an uncertainty shock. We find a significantly stronger response of real activity in recessions. Counterfactual …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012824829
output) shortly after a monetary policy shock. To overcome this problem, we propose to estimate the VAR parameters under the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014262412
We estimate Okun's law, the negative relationship between output and the unemployment rate, at the sector level for the US, the UK, Japan, and Switzerland to test several hypotheses that may explain why the aggregate Okun's coeffcients are different across countries. Specifically, we show that...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012841145
, we use a free and instantaneous available source of leading indicators, the ifo World Economic Survey (WES), to forecast …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012867868
outbreak. We predict the cumulative loss in world output one year after the uncertainty shock due to Covid-19 to be about 14% …We estimate a three-variate VAR using proxies of global financial uncertainty, the global financial cycle, and world …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012834352