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We propose a model of instrumental belief choice under loss aversion. When new information arrives, an agent is prompted to abandon her prior. However, potential posteriors may induce her to take actions that generate a lower utility in some states than actions induced by her prior. These losses...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011584855
Perceived urgency and regret are common in many sequential search processes; for example, sellers often pressure buyers … in search of the best offer, both time-wise and in terms of potential regret of forgoing unique purchasing opportunities …. Theoretically, these strategies result in anticipated and experienced regret, which systematically affect search behavior and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012599209
We analyze a psychologically-based model of voter turnout in an election with common value and uncertainty. Our model yields distinctive comparative statics results. First, an increase in the proportion of informed citizens may cause the winning margin for the right candidate to either rise or...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010420713
Emotions were central to the development of economics, especially in utility theory in classical economics. While neoclassical utility theory basically abolished emotions, behavioural economics more recently reintroduced emotions in utility theory. Beyond utility theory, economic theorists use...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011522482
, known knowns, using Lasso and OCMT, and approximating unobserved latent factors, known unknowns, by various means. This …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014534378
This paper develops a recursive model of voter turnout and voting outcomes at U.S. county level to investigate the socioeconomic determinants of recent U.S. presidential elections. It is shown that the relationship between many socioeconomic variables and voting outcomes is not uniform across...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012314902
This document is a follow up to the paper by Ahmed and Pesaran (2020, AP) and reports state-level forecasts for the 2024 US presidential election. It updates the 3,107 county level data used by AP and uses the same machine learning techniques as before to select the variables used in forecasting...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015166166