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Incentives, Search Engines, and the Elicitation of Subjective Beliefs : Evidence from Representative Online Survey Experiments
Grewenig, Elisabeth - 2019
A large literature studies subjective beliefs about economic facts using unincentivized survey questions. We devise randomized experiments in a representative online survey to investigate whether incentivizing belief accuracy affects stated beliefs about average earnings by professional degree...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012890194
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Do Survey Expectations of Stock Returns Reflect Risk-Adjustments?
Adam, Klaus - 2019
Motivated by the observation that survey expectations of stock returns are inconsistent with rational return expectations under real-world probabilities, we investigate whether alternative expectations hypotheses entertained in the asset pricing literature are consistent with the survey...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012892287
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Five Facts About Beliefs and Portfolios
Giglio, Stefano - 2019
We administer a newly-designed survey to a large panel of retail investors who have substantial wealth invested in financial markets. The survey elicits beliefs that are crucial for macroeconomics and finance, and matches respondents with administrative data on their portfolio composition and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012866380
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Limited Self-Knowledge and Survey Response Behavior
Falk, Armin; Neuber, Thomas; Strack, Philipp - 2021
We study response behavior in surveys and show how the explanatory power of self-reports can be improved. First, we develop a choice model of survey response behavior under the assumption that the respondent has imperfect self-knowledge about her individual characteristics. In panel data, the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013219070
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Using Machine Learning and Qualitative Interviews to Design a Five-Question Women's Agency Index
Jayachandran, Seema; Biradavolu, Monica; Cooper, Jan - 2021
measure agency for 209 women in Haryana, India, first, through a semi-structured interview and, second, through a large set of … close-ended questions. We use qualitative coding methods to score each woman’s agency based on the interview, which we treat … resulting five-question index is as strongly correlated with the coded qualitative interview as is an index that uses all of the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013235120
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Voluntary and Mandatory Social Distancing : Evidence on COVID-19 Exposure Rates from Chinese Provinces and Selected Countries
Chudik, Alexander - 2020
This paper considers a modification of the standard Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model of epidemic that allows for different degrees of compulsory as well as voluntary social distancing. It is shown that the fraction of population that self-isolates varies with the perceived probability...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012835654
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The information content of capacity utilisation rates for output gap estimates
Graff, Michael; Sturm, Jan-Egbert - 2010
From a theoretical perspective, the output gap is probably the most comprehensive and convincing concept to describe the cyclical position of an economy. Unfortunately, for practical purposes, the concept depends on the determination of potential output, which is an inherently unobservable...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010274874
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The Geographic Spread of COVID-19 Correlates with Structure of Social Networks as Measured by Facebook
Kuchler, Theresa; Russel, Dominic; Stroebel, Johannes - 2020
We use anonymized and aggregated data from Facebook to show that areas with stronger social ties to two early COVID-19 "hotspots" (Westchester County, NY, in the U.S. and Lodi province in Italy) generally have more confirmed COVID-19 cases as of March 30, 2020. These relationships hold after...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012208006
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Income and Wealth Shocks and Expectations during the COVID-19 Pandemic
Hanspal, Tobin; Weber, Annika; Wohlfart, Johannes - 2020
effect of the coronavirus crisis on household income and retirement wealth, households' expectations about the recovery, and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012208009
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Inequality in the Impact of the Coronavirus Shock: Evidence from Real Time Surveys
Adams-Prassl, Abi; Boneva, Teodora; Golin, Marta; Rauh, … - 2020
We present real time survey evidence from the UK, US and Germany showing that the labor market impacts of COVID-19 differ considerably across countries. Employees in Germany, which has a well-established short-time work scheme, are substantially less likely to be affected by the crisis. Within...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012214176