Costain, James; Nuño, Galo; Thomas, Carlos - 2022
We build a no-arbitrage model of the yield curves in a heterogeneous monetary union with sovereign default risk, which … solution, and decompose yields into term premium and credit risk components. In an extension, we endogenize the peripheral … default probability, showing that it decreases with central bank bond-holdings. Calibrating the model to Germany and Italy, we …