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To reconcile the mixed empirical results, we develop a theoretical model whose main implication is a concave impact of regulation on the probability of a crisis. We test this relationship by applying a Probit model of a non-linear specification to annual data from 1999 to 2011 drawn from 132...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012866557
This paper introduces new data on the term in office of central bank governors in 137 countries for 1970-2004. Our … panel models show that the probability that a central bank governor is replaced in a particular year is positively related …. The latter result suggests that the turnover rate of central bank governors (TOR) is a poor indicator of central bank …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013316991
IMF programs are often considered to carry a “stigma” that triggers adverse market reactions. We show that such a negative IMF effect disappears when accounting for endogenous selection into programs. To proxy for a country's access to financial markets, we use credit ratings and investor...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012920590
This paper introduces new data on the term in office of central bank governors in 137 countries for 1970-2004. Our … panel models show that the probability that a central bank governor is replaced in a particular year is positively related …. The latter result suggests that the turnover rate of central bank governors (TOR) is a poor indicator of central bank …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010274039
In this paper we perform a meta-analysis of the effects of monetary policies on output and prices. We use a sample of published papers on the effects of monetary policies in different countries. There is a large variation in the estimated effects of monetary policies on output and prices. We...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010261220
Traditionally banks have used securitization for expanding credit and thus their profitability. It has been well documented that, at least before the 2008 crisis, many banks were keeping a high proportion of the securities that they created on their own balance-sheets. Those securities retained...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010283592
We introduce a new hybrid approach to joint estimation of Value at Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES) for high quantiles of return distributions. We investigate the relative performance of VaR and ES models using daily returns for sixteen stock market indices (eight from developed and eight...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010265962
only applies to large players. Sectoral concentration, bank health and the share of foreign ownership yield more mixed …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012824593
We estimate a three-variate VAR using proxies of global financial uncertainty, the global financial cycle, and world … outbreak. We predict the cumulative loss in world output one year after the uncertainty shock due to Covid-19 to be about 14% …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012834352
The past decades witnessed big changes in international trade with the rise of global value chains. Some countries, such as China, Poland, and Vietnam rode the tide, while other countries, many in the Africa region, faltered. This paper studies the determinants of participation in global value...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012834362