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Sovereign Defaults and Debt Sustainability : The Debt Recovery Channel
Diarra, Ibrahima; Guillard, Michel; Kempf, Hubert - 2022
This paper focuses on the debt recovery channel linking the dynamics of public debt to partial sovereign defaults. We build a simple model which incorporates sovereign default and a debt recovery rule. It depends on a parameter that allows for partial debt recovery. We show that the maximum...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013292498
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The Euro Crisis and Economic Growth : A Novel Counterfactual Approach
Terzi, Alessio - 2019
warranted. To make this claim, this paper uses a Propensity Score Matching Model to produce counterfactuals for the Eurozone … more in the Eurozone periphery than in the standard counterfactual scenario. These results are not dictated by any specific … Eurozone's specificity, which is instead to be traced back to a sharper-than-expected contraction in investment and fiscal …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012866042
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Collective Memories on the 2010 European Debt Crisis
Arnemann, Laura; Konrad, Kai A.; Potrafke, Niklas - 2021
We examine whether collective memories on the aid&reform programs chosen to handle the 2010 European debt crisis differ between citizens from borrower and lender countries. We use new international survey data for non-experts and experts in member countries of the euro area. The results show...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013250727
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The Euro Area Periphery Sovereigns' Fiscal Positions and Unconventional Monetary Policy
Hülsewig, Oliver - 2020
We explore the reaction of the euro area periphery sovereigns' fiscal positions to an unconventional monetary policy shock. We estimate panel vector autoregressive (VAR) models over the period 2010-2018, and identify the shock by imposing sign restrictions. Our results suggest that the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012843420
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Public Finances Solvency in the Euro Area : True or False?
Afonso, António; Coelho, Jose Carlos - 2022
We assess public finances solvency for Euro Area countries using quarterly data between 1999Q1 and 2020Q4. Through a country-by-country analysis, the answer to the title question is true. For most countries, (i) the primary budget balance reacts positively to the lagged public debt ratio and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014076999
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Twin Deficits Through the Looking Glass : Time-Varying Analysis in the Euro Area
Afonso, António; Coelho, José Carlos - 2022
Using two measures of the fiscal position, the cyclically adjusted primary budget balance (CAPB) and the total budget balance, we assess the Twin Deficit Hypothesis for the Euro Area in the period 1995-2020. Furthermore, we estimate time-varying coefficients of the current account balance...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013306033
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Stigma or Cushion? IMF Programs and Sovereign Creditworthiness
Gehring, Kai - 2018
IMF programs are often considered to carry a “stigma” that triggers adverse market reactions. We show that such a negative IMF effect disappears when accounting for endogenous selection into programs. To proxy for a country's access to financial markets, we use credit ratings and investor...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012920590
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Compliance Effects of Sovereign Debt Cuts
Janeba, Eckhard - 2019
The controversy about sovereign debt cuts loomed prominently throughout crisis in the European Union (EU), as the EU legal rules were viewed to impose strict limitations on debt restructuring involving public creditors due to moral hazard concerns enshrined in the legal ban on bailouts. This...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012866369
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The Seniority Structure of Sovereign Debt
Schlegl, Matthias - 2019
Sovereign governments owe debt to many foreign creditors and can choose which creditors to favor when making payments. This paper documents the de facto seniority structure of sovereign debt using new data on defaults (missed payments or arrears) and creditor losses in debt restructuring...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012870639
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Debt as Safe Asset
Brunnermeier, Markus K.; Merkel, Sebastian; Sannikov, Yuliy - 2022
The price of a safe asset reflects not only the expected discounted future cash flows but also future service flows, since retrading allows partial insurance of idiosyncratic risk in an incomplete markets setting. This lowers the issuers’ interest burden and allows the government to run a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013308246