Showing 1 - 10 of 2,223
We propose a theory of indebted demand, capturing the idea that large debt burdens by households and governments lower … aggregate demand, and thus natural interest rates. At the core of the theory is the simple yet under-appreciated observation …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012836950
risk of workers, which mitigates their precautionary savings motive. Using a quantitative model analysis, we show that this …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014079142
We study optimal monetary policy during temporary supply contractions when aggregate demand has inertia and expansionary policy is constrained. In this environment, it is optimal to run the economy hot until supply recovers. Positive output gaps in the low-supply phase lessen the negative output...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013282457
for the future (global savings glut). Low growth is linked to slowing population growth and a declining marginal …, from the perspective of Austrian business cycle theory, interest rates were step by step decreased by central banks to … nihilo and the need of time to produce capital invalidates the IS identity assumed in the Keynesian theory to hold …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012858697
This paper studies the long-run relationship between consumption, asset wealth and income in Germany, based on data from 1980 to 2003. While earlier studies – mostly for the Anglo- Saxon economies – have generally documented that departures of these three variables from their common trend...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010261168
We propose a theory of indebted demand, capturing the idea that large debt burdens by households and governments lower … aggregate demand, and thus natural interest rates. At the core of the theory is the simple yet under-appreciated observation …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012207975
We estimate a three-variate VAR using proxies of global financial uncertainty, the global financial cycle, and world industrial production to simulate the effects of the jump in financial uncertainty observed in correspondence of the Covid-19 outbreak. We predict the cumulative loss in world...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012834352
In this paper we use the property that certainty equivalence, as implied by a first-order approximation to the solution of stochastic discrete-time models, breaks in its equivalent continuous-time version. We study the extent to which a first-order approximated solution built by perturbation...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012834991
Using a novel dataset that contains qualitative firm survey data on sales forecasts as well as balance-sheet data on realized sales, we document that only major forecast errors are predictable and display autocorrelation. This result is a particular violation of the Full Information Rational...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012839767
How much does inequality matter for the business cycle and vice versa? Using a Bayesian likelihood approach, we estimate a heterogeneous-agent New-Keynesian (HANK) model with incomplete markets and portfolio choice between liquid and illiquid assets. The model enlarges the set of shocks and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012841741