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Uncertainty and Monetary Policy in Good and Bad Times : A Replication of the VAR Investigation by Bloom (2009)
Caggiano, Giovanni - 2020
This paper revisits the well-known VAR evidence on the real effects of uncertainty shocks by Bloom (Econometrica 2009(3): 623-685. doi: 10.3982/ECTA6248). We replicate the results in a narrow sense using Eviews. In a wide sense, we extend his study by working with a smooth transition-VAR...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012824829
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Great Volatility and Great Moderation
Grazzini, Jakob - 2019
We investigate the sources of the great changes in GDP volatility observed from 1966 to 2000. We develop a general …-sectoral linkages and households' behavior to aggregate volatility. Our results show that changes in sectoral volatility played an … important role in shaping volatility at the aggregate level. Moreover, asymmetries in the economic structure sometimes had an …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012892302
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Real wages and business cycle asymmetries
Woitek, Ulrich - 2004
The cyclicality of real wages has important implications for the validity of competing business cycle theories. However, the empirical evidence on the aggregate level is inconclusive. Using a threshold vector autoregressive model for the US and Germany to condition the relationship between real...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010261205
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Tracking Weekly State-Level Economic Conditions
Baumeister, Christiane; Leiva-Leon, Danilo; Sims, Eric R. - 2021
In this paper, we develop a novel dataset of weekly economic conditions indices for the 50 U.S. states going back to 1987 based on mixed-frequency dynamic factor models with weekly, monthly, and quarterly variables that cover multiple dimensions of state economies. We show that there is...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013220135
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The Euro Area Government Spending Multiplier in Demand- and Supply-Driven Recessions
di Serio, Mario; Fragetta, Matteo; Gasteiger, Emanuel; … - 2022
We estimate government spending multipliers in demand- and supply-driven recessions for the Euro Area. Multipliers in a moderately demand-driven recession are 2-3 times larger than in a moderately supply-driven recession, with the difference between multipliers being non-zero with very high...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013292507
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Perceived Uncertainty Shocks, Excess Optimism-Pessimism, and Learning in the Business Cycle
Chatterjee, Pratiti; Milani, Fabio - 2021
What are the effects of beliefs, sentiment, and uncertainty, over the business cycle? To answer this question, we develop a behavioral New Keynesian macroeconomic model, in which we relax the assumption of rational expectations. Agents are, instead, boundedly rational: they have a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013315209
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Why Does Risk Matter More in Recessions than in Expansions?
Andreasen, Martin M.; Caggiano, Giovanni; Pellegrino, … - 2021
stronger upward nominal pricing bias in recessions than in expansions, because recessions imply higher inflation volatility and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013324269
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Macroeconomic Responses to Uncertainty Shocks : The Perils of Recursive Orderings
Kilian, Lutz; Plante, Michael; Richter, Alexander W. - 2022
A common practice in empirical macroeconomics is to examine alternative recursive orderings of the variables in structural vector autogressive (VAR) models. When the implied impulse responses look similar, the estimates are considered trustworthy. When they do not, the estimates are used to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014240870
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Quarterly GDP Estimates for the German States : New Data for Business Cycle Analyses and Long-Run Dynamics
Lehmann, Robert; Wikman, Ida - 2023
To date, only annual information on economic activity is published for the 16 German states. In this paper, we calculate quarterly regional GDP estimates for the period between 1995 to 2021, thereby improving the regional database for Germany. The new data set will regularly be updated when...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014260700
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Financial Frictions and the Wealth Distribution
Fernández-Villaverde, Jesús - 2020
-varying levels of volatility and skewness for the same variables; and iii) supercycles of borrowing and deleveraging. All of these …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012825400