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The empirical literature of stock market predictability mainly suffers from model uncertainty and parameter instability. To meet this challenge, we propose a novel approach that combines the documented merits of diffusion indices, regime-switching models, and forecast combination to predict the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013250734
in specific correlation dynamics. A strong implication emerges: during the period under research, and from a different …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010531821
This paper applies fractional integration and cointegration methods to examine respectively the univariate properties of the four main cryptocurrencies in terms of market capitalization (BTC, ETH, USDT, BNB) and of four US stock market indices (S&P500, NASDAQ, Dow Jones and MSCI for emerging...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014239604
This paper uses a modelling framework which includes two singularities (or poles) in the spectral density function, one corresponding to the long-run (zero) frequency and the other to the cyclical (non-zero) frequency. The adopted specification is very general, since it allows for fractional...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012859046
volatility fail the robustness test. On the other hand, we find strong evidence supporting several others: (1) inertia, with … current correlation being the best single predictor of the future stock market correlation (2) positive impact of the market …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014237624
This paper analyses the effects of oil prices and exchange rates on sectoral stock returns in the BRICS-T countries over the period from 2 January 2001 to 22 March 2021. After estimating a benchmark linear model, the possible presence of structural breaks is investigated using the Bai and Perron...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013211113
This paper considers a multivariate t version of the Gaussian dynamic conditional correlation (DCC) model proposed by … than by GARCH type volatility estimates. The t-DCC estimation procedure is applied to a portfolio of daily returns on … suggest a general trend towards a lower level of return volatility, accompanied by a rising trend in conditional cross …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010276212
return correlations using weekly returns on futures markets and investigate the extent to which multivariate volatility … version of the Gaussian dynamic conditional correlation (DCC) model proposed by Engle (2002), and show that the t-DCC model …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010276271
This paper proposes a novel regularisation method for the estimation of large covariance matrices, which makes use of insights from the multiple testing literature. The method tests the statistical significance of individual pair-wise correlations and sets to zero those elements that are not...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010398521
. (2023) to estimate global food price mean and volatility indicators, the latter measuring uncertainty and risk in the global … volatility shocks have sizeable effects on food price inflation in all countries and persistent second-round effects on core … volatility) and their effects on core inflation to formulate appropriate policy responses. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014534439