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Forecasting GDP All Over the World Using Leading Indicators Based on Comprehensive Survey Data
Garnitz, Johanna - 2019
Comprehensive and international comparable leading indicators across countries and continents are rare. In this paper, we use a free and instantaneous available source of leading indicators, the ifo World Economic Survey (WES), to forecast growth of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 44 countries...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012867868
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Building Daily Economic Sentiment Indicators
del Castillo, Pilar Rey - 2022
The availability of copious amounts of data produced by the increasing datification of our society is nowadays deemed an opportunity to produce timely and convenient statistical information. This paper shows the building of economic sentiment indexes from the texts of the most read economic...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014241615
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Quantifying Qualitative Survey Data : New Insights on the (Ir)Rationality of Firms' Forecasts
Botsis, Alexandros - 2020
Using a novel dataset that contains qualitative firm survey data on sales forecasts as well as balance-sheet data on realized sales, we document that only major forecast errors are predictable and display autocorrelation. This result is a particular violation of the Full Information Rational...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012839767
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News Media vs. FRED-MD for Macroeconomic Forecasting
Ellingsen, Jon; Larsen, Vegard; Thorsrud, Leif Anders - 2021
Using a unique dataset of 22.5 million news articles from the Dow Jones Newswires Archive, we perform an in depth real-time out-of-sample forecasting comparison study with one of the most widely used data sets in the newer forecasting literature, namely the FRED-MD dataset. Focusing on U.S. GDP,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013315147
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ROC and PRC Approaches to Evaluate Recession Forecasts
Lahiri, Kajal; Yang, Cheng - 2023
We have studied the relationship between Receiver Operating Characteristics (ROC) and Precision-Recall Curve (PRC) both analytically and using a real-life empirical example of yield spread as a predictor of recessions. We show that false alarm rate in ROC and inverted precision in PRC are...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014348182
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Electricity Use as a Real Time Indicator of the Economic Burden of the COVID-19-Related Lockdown : Evidence from Switzerland
Janzen, Benedikt - 2020
We employ hourly electricity load data for Switzerland as a real time indicator of the economic effects of the lockdown following the spread of SARS-CoV-2. Our findings reveal that following the drastic lockdown, overall electricity use decreased by 4 per cent, with a reduction of even 11.3 per...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012830989
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Electricity Use as a Real Time Indicator of the Economic Burden of the Covid-19-Related Lockdown: Evidence from Switzerland
Janzen, Benedikt; Radulescu, Doina Maria - 2020
We employ hourly electricity load data for Switzerland as a real time indicator of the economic effects of the lockdown following the spread of SARS-CoV-2. Our findings reveal that following the drastic lockdown, overall electricity use decreased by 4 per cent, with a reduction of even 11.3...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012269433
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The KOF Globalisation Index - Revisited
Gygli, Savina - 2019
We introduce the revised version of the KOF Globalisation Index, a composite index measuring globalization for every … country in the world along the economic, social and political dimension. The original index was introduced by Dreher (2006 …) and updated in Dreher et al. (2008). This second revision of the index distinguishes between de facto and de jure measures …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012892154
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The Forecasting Power of the Ifo Business Survey
Lehmann, Robert - 2020
The ifo Institute is Germany's largest business survey provider, with the ifo Business Climate Germany as one of the most important leading indicators for gross domestic product. However, the ifo Business Survey is not solely limited to the Business Climate and also delivers a multitude of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012833732
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Tracking and Predicting the German Economy : Ifo vs. Pmi
Lehmann, Robert - 2020
for the next quarter, the ifo indicators are slightly better than the IHS Markit headline index. For the manufacturing …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012839771